Week 10 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
This week’s slate features four contests with spreads larger than a touchdown, along with several close divisional matchups where the public is heavily one-sided, which can provide value in certain contests.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 10, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make smart decisions in order to get back on track or keep you going if you’ve had a strong start to the season thus far.
Week 9 Recap
Last week was not my best in this column, as my picks went .500 (2-2). Houston and Green Bay came through for me, while both Seattle and the Bucs fell very flat.
Through nine weeks, my picks in this column are 27-11 overall—with three of those losses coming the first week.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 10 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and number of weeks remaining.
As usual, these picks are sorted according to where they sit on the risk/reward spectrum. I try to provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 10 picks from your pool opponents, by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.
Favorite Favorites
Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
This game boasts the largest spread of the week (12.5) in favor of the Packers, with an 83% win projection by TeamRankings and 99% of the public backing them—all for good reason.
Factors stacked against the Jags include but are not limited to, being outmatched in talent on both sides of the ball, lacking home-field advantage in a frozen tundra that they are not used to playing in, having rookie Jake Luton under center and their kicker is out.
This, of course, could be a trap game for the Packers, but all things considered, they should roll easily to a victory. You’ll win or lose with everyone in your league.
New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers
This is another safe one, but sometimes it just makes sense to go with a potential blowout. The Saints are rolling through the NFC right now, while the 49ers are just trying to get a full team on the field each week.
New Orleans is an 11-point home favorite, with Vegas giving them 80% win odds and TeamRankings coming in higher at 84%. The rest of your pool mates will also be on this game, as 97% of the public is currently backing the Saints.
Value Pick
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
This NFC West showdown is basically a pick'em, with the Rams favored by one point and given 52% win odds by Vegas and TeamRankings. The public seems to love Russell Wilson and thinks he’ll cook his week, as they’re backing Seattle 76% of the time. I guess they are ignoring the fact the Seahawks defense is terrible and have allowed the most total yards through Week 9, and that the Rams have won four of the last five times these two teams have met, averaging over 33 points scored in each.
This contest is a great opportunity to take the slight favorite and gain ground on a big chunk of your pool if they win.
Toss-Up Gamble
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
This game is pretty much a coin flip, betting-wise, with the Colts currently a one-point underdog. Both of these teams have been tough to figure out this season, but I give the edge to Indy, based on their defense (first in fewest total yards allowed and second-best in yards per carry allowed), along with the Titans’ struggles to rush the pass this season.
Indy features 47% win odds via TeamRankings, but only 11% of the public is taking them, with 89% picking Tennesee.
Survivor Picks for Week 10
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 10 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Green Bay Packers vs. Jaguars (89%, 12.5-point favorites)
- New Orleans Saints vs. 49ers (80%, 11-point favorites)
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Bengals (76%, 7.5-point favorites)
- Baltimore Ravens @ Patriots (74%, 7.5-point favorites
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Broncos (69%, 5-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 10 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Green Bay Packers vs. Jaguars (56%)
- New Orleans Saints vs. 49ers (24%)
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Broncos (6%)
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Bengals (4%)
- Baltimore Ravens @ Patriots (3%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 10, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Baltimore Ravens (5.6)
- Green Bay Packers (3.2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (2.9)
- New Orleans Saints (2.6)
- Seattle Seahawks (2.4)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
