DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 9
In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 9. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.
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More Cash Game Strategy: FanDuel Breakdown | DraftKings Breakdown | Core Plays | WR/CB Matchups
FanDuel Week 9 Optimal Plays
Locks
- Lamar Jackson ($8,300)
- Austin Ekeler ($9,000)
- Stefon Diggs ($7,600)
Potential Build
Damien Harris ($6,600) has the worst possible matchup for running backs going against the Panthers. He's an interesting contrarian play though as the Patriots are second in the league in rushing percentage over the last three weeks. If the Panthers offense can't get going, it's possible Harris could get enough attempts to overcome the tough matchup. He's also found the end zone in five straight games. Zach Moss ($6,000) is the clear lead back for the Bills but that hasn't amounted to much production. However, the Bills are heavy favorites this week against the Jaguars who rank 20th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs. The Jaguars are allowing the third-most red zone trips and rushing touchdowns per game. Myles Gaskin ($6,100) has received at least 15 touches in back-to-back games. The concern with Gaskin on FanDuel is he has yet to score a rushing touchdown all season. Luckily for him, he gets a Texans defense that is being run on at the second-highest rate and has allowed the most rushing touchdowns this season.
Ja'Maar Chase ($7,900) has received at least nine targets in four of his last five games. Over the last three weeks, the Bengals are second in the NFL in points per game. Justin Jefferson ($7,600) is coming off of his worst game of the year but it's a good week to go right back to him. Prior to his four-target performance, he received seven targets in every game. The Ravens rank sixth in aFPA to wide receivers but are allowing the most passing yards per game and the Vikings are projected to be chasing. Despite Sam Darnold looking terrible, D.J. Moore ($7,100) has maintained a high floor. He's averaging 10 targets per game and has surpassed 70 receiving yards in six of eight games. He hasn't scored a touchdown in four straight games but he has the seventh most targets inside the 10-yard line.
With DeAndre Hopkins fighting a hamstring injury and A.J. Green on the COVID list, Zach Ertz ($5,500) should feast. In his first two games with the Cardinals he has received seven targets and totaled over 100 receiving yards. Hunter Henry ($5,300) was on a hot streak finding the end zone but he hasn't received five targets in a game since Week 5. However, if the Panthers force the Patriots to put the ball in the air, they may need to lean on Henry. The Panthers rank seventh in aFPA to receivers but 14th to tight ends. He'll be mega chalk but Albert Okwuegbunam ($4,500) will replace Noah Fant after Fant was put on the COVID list. In his first game back from injury, Albert O received three targets and was second on the team in target rate. For the season, Fant has received the second-highest percentage of team targets (20%) so he's stepping into a huge role.
DraftKings Week 9 Optimal Plays
Locks
- Austin Ekeler ($7,900)
- Tyreek Hill ($7,900)
- Dallas Goedert ($4,500)
Potential Build
Lamar Jackson ($7,300) has the third-highest points per game average on DraftKings and he's really only had two great games. He's rushed for over 50 yards in three straight games and could have all of his weapons healthy coming off of the bye. A cheap option is Jordan Love ($4,400) who gets the start after Aaron Rodgers was placed on the COVID list. The ceiling may be low unless the Chiefs offense can get back on track and force the Packers to put the ball in the air. The Chiefs defense is the great matchup for a team that wants to hide its quarterback as they are being run on at the 10th-highest rate, allowing the 10th-most rushing yards and the fifth-highest rushing yards per attempt.
Cordarelle Patterson ($6,300) has received at least 14 touches in three straight games and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game since Week 1. The Saints rank sixth in aFPA to running backs but Patterson's hybrid role will get him some looks at receiver where they rank 28th. Myles Gaskin ($5,800) and Zach Moss (5,300) were both options on FanDuel and stand out as top values here as well. Chase Edmonds ($5,300) found the end zone for the first time last week and gets a 49ers defense that has allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns. With Kyler Murray and the receiving corp banged up, perhaps they lean on the running backs even more. The Cardinals are running the ball at the fifth-highest rate this season.
I discussed D.J. Moore ($6,400) earlier but he's an even better option on DraftKings considering last week was the first time he didn't catch at least five passes. CeeDee Lamb has been missing practice with an ankle injury so Amari Cooper ($5,700) should continue to build on his big performance last week. Coming off the bye, Cooper received 13 targets and went over 100 receiving yards. The Broncos defense ranks 12th in aFPA to receivers but is allowing the ninth most passing yards per game. I feel like I've mentioned Tee Higgins ($5,300) every week but he's on the verge of an explosion. Over the last two weeks, Higgins has received 48% of the Bengals air yards and 30% of the team targets. He also leads the team in red zone targets despite missing time earlier in the season.
