Deshaun Watson's Comeback: 2023 Outlook

Base rates are a crucial part of analyzing data. When you have a rich database to draw from, it instills confidence in your analysis of a new situation and potential future outcomes. We don’t have many situations similar to Deshaun Watson’s from a football perspective. Rarely do we encounter a nearly 700-day gap between starts for a perennial Top 5 quarterback, coupled with a team switch due to off-the-field issues. Is he the signal caller that we saw struggle for a half dozen games last year or is he going to make it back to what we expect from a player of his caliber?

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What Does Cleveland Want to Do?

There are reasons to believe that the Browns' philosophy changes a bit now that Watson will have a full offseason as the known Week 1 starter. Nick Chubb isn’t going to disappear, obviously, but they are showing both in the draft and in other transactions that they want a stronger wide receiver room. Exhibit A is the trade for Elijah Moore. Exhibit B is their use of their first pick in the draft on a wide receiver. Investing in their wide receiver corps is a clear indication that the Cleveland Browns aren't content with relying on a ground-and-pound attack in the upcoming season.

What is Watson’s Outlook Given His Underdog ADP?

Since Underdog drafts opened at the start of May, his ADP has dropped by nearly a full round. Watson is currently going around pick 80 in Underdog ADP which puts him as the ninth QB off the board.

Taking chances around this part in the draft can pay huge dividends when things break the right way. We have seen the good:

• Jalen Hurts (2022)

• Tom Brady (2021)

• Josh Allen (2020)

• Matt Ryan (2019)

• Russell Wilson (2017)

But, we’ve also seen the ugly:

• Matthew Stafford (2022)

• Baker Mayfield (2019)

• Matt Ryan (2017)

This dichotomy will undoubtedly resurface in 2023 drafts. On which side of the coin will Watson ultimately land?

The Case for Upside

The difference between a top-five quarterback and Deshaun Watson’s projection is about 50 points. Although it sounds like a large gap to close, it only amounts to three points per game. As things stand, we have him projected outside of the Top 20 in passing attempts and passing TDs. Our current passing touchdown rate projection would be the lowest mark of his career at 3.9%. Last year was pretty much a total wash and he still managed to go over 4%. If he hit his career average of 5.8% without increasing his volume, we just added two points per game without accounting for any change in philosophy. With that bump, Watson would leapfrog Daniel Jones and become the QB9. If he does drop below his career touchdown rate, he could still get there easily on volume. Cleveland, at the very least, demonstrates a greater inclination to pass this year based on their recent moves.

Bottom Line

The nature of quarterback performance is such that small bumps in efficiency and/or volume can completely shift the landscape. A few extra touchdowns here, a small bump in passing volume there, and you’re climbing the leaderboard quickly.

• Despite multiple needs, Cleveland traded for Elijah Moore and used their first selection in the draft on a wide receiver.

• We’ve seen league-winning quarterbacks drafted in this range and should be willing to take shots where Watson is being taken at QB9.

• If he can be the average version of himself, we could see a Top 10 quarterback without too much tweaking of his projection.