15 Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target After Pick 150

The burn-and-churn strategy for re-draft rosters is typically forgotten over the summer with best ball taking precedence. But any winning player would be the first to tell you that upside is what matters most in the later rounds, knowing we can always shed the dead weight to get ahead of potential Free Agency Auction Budget (FAAB) eruptions weekly.

These are my favorite fliers with an Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP) of 144.0 (Round 12) or later including deep sleepers for expanded 20-round leagues.

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Michael Carter, RB, Jets - Underdog ADP 149.5

In their first preseason game together, Carter started over Breece Hall and ultimately mirrored the second-round rookie in snaps (10) with the first-string offense on the field. While that doesn’t sound enticing for either player, the difference is Carter is usually available to open the 12th round. This admittedly could be an ugly situation altogether given that New York was one of only seven teams to average fewer than 61 plays per game last year, but the discount to buy into an ambiguous duo is hard to ignore. Reminder Carter flashed elite hands out of the backfield as a collegiate player himself, averaging 23.6 receptions and 7.8 yards per catch across his last three years with the Tar Heels.

Khalil Herbert, RB, Bears - 152

The only running back in the league to eclipse the century mark against the Bucs last year, Herbert has consistently mixed in with the first-string offense in camp and is being treated by drafters as if he didn’t record the higher broken tackle rate than David Montgomery’s (14.6%-13.3%). With no strings attached to the current regime on the final year of his rookie deal, Montgomery’s monopoly with at least 267 touches in each of the last three campaigns is expected to go gently into the night from Week 1 on.

Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Bills - 156.2

McKenzie opened offseason workouts in three-wide sets but no one listened. Then he began camp in place of Jamison Crowder (soreness) and did nothing but deliver. Any doubt was finally put to bed in Buffalo’s first preseason game as he was healthy-scratched alongside Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Dawson Knox. With 6/65/2 and 11/125/1 in his last two starts for Cole Beasley, there is no concern over McKenzie delivering around greater talent as the team’s starting slot receiver. I would take him in a vacuum over Nico Collins (152.9) at their respective ADPs.

David Njoku, TE, Browns - 160.9

Njoku averaged just 2.3 catches and 29.7 receiving yards last year, but his two most explosive performances in Weeks 1 (3/76) and 5 (7/149/1) occurred before Baker Mayfield separated his shoulder in Week 6. Austin Hooper’s release also vacates 61 targets (3.8 per game) for an offense that funneled to its tight ends at a top-three rate in back-to-back years under coach Kevin Stefanski. With the organization clearly all-in on the 26-year-old following a lucrative four-year, $54.7 million contract including the sixth-most guaranteed cash ($28 million) at his position, Njoku’s potential top-eight ceiling is not baked into his current range.

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants - 164.8

There is no doubt Brian Daboll will spread the field on offense after his Bills schemed the league’s lowest rate of multi-tight end sets last year. It’s a terrific strategy to unlock Jones’ upside behind New York's revamped o-line since he quietly averaged a 70% completion rate for 7.3 yards per attempt from a clean pocket the past two years. Any carryover from Daboll’s play-calling in designing 68% of Josh Allen’s scrambles across Buffalo’s last seven games (as a response to two high safeties) could potentially land Jones among the top-15 at his position. Expect a significant increase in play volume since S Logan Ryan and Pro-Bowler James Bradberry vacate a combined 31 starts on defense.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs - 171.7

The drumbeat is only getting louder for Pacheco after he worked behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and ahead of Jerick McKinnon) in Kansas City’s first preseason game, logging three snaps with Patrick Mahomes and recording the longest return of the game (34 yards) as the team’s primary kick returner. Ronald Jones (Pacheco’s supposed competition) meanwhile failed to break a single tackle on four carries with the second-string offense and whiffed the block that led to Shane Buechele getting sacked. McKinnon isn’t a threat after he was used for only 12 carries in the regular season. Sometimes it’s as simple as chasing an explosive running back in a Mahomes-led offense, and Pacheco’s 4.37 40-time at 6’0/215 offers just that.

Eno Benjamin, RB, Cardinals - 199.8

It’s no secret James Conner has yet to play a full season in his entire NFL career. The issue is that Darrel Williams has incorrectly been treated as Arizona’s direct backup when Benjamin is the one who has been endlessly hyped. I do not believe anyone in this backfield offers standalone value as long as Conner, who averaged 20.8 touches in five starts without Chase Edmonds, is healthy, but it’s obviously Benjamin (5’9/207) rather than 'The Mentor' who should be stashed as an every-down option with immense upside in the final rounds.

Mo Alie-Cox, TE, Colts - 204.7

If missing out on any of the top-five tight ends, my ideal strategy in 16-round home leagues has been to wait for Alie-Cox as my lone starter at that position until the very last pick. Not only does Jack Doyle's retirement quietly vacate 20.1 tight end-routes per game, MAC’s “competition” is either playing with the third-string offense or a negligent fourth-rounder who recorded 11 catches all last year. With the Texans on deck for Week 1, this approach allows us to avoid dumping FAAB on Alie-Cox in the event he emerges as a top-12 tight end in a soft spot out the gates.

Deeper Leagues

Jeff Wilson, RB, 49ers

Trey Sermon, RB, 49ers

The same tired argument being made for Tyrion Davis-Price is the exact one that got drafters in trouble last year; the only difference in TDP’s third-round capital compared to Sermon’s is the former’s current ADP, which inexplicably sits three rounds ahead of the latter’s (and four ahead of Wilson’s). Davis-Price also didn’t play special teams at LSU, which JaMycal Hasty, Sermon, and Wilson all proved capable of. I will always throw a dart at the best value possible in a run-heavy Kyle Shanahan-led offense, and this backfield’s disparity in ADP allows us to do just that.

Greg Dulcich, TE, Broncos

Tim Patrick’s unfortunate season-ending injury not only allows Jerry Jeudy to stay glued to the field in two-wide sets but forces Denver to use more 12 personnel given its receiver depth and day two capital spent on Dulcich (6’4/243). I am expecting the rookie to be deployed as the Broncos’ big slot akin to Mike Gesicki, which would allow him to stay in on passing downs and flash the traits he used to average 17.6 yards per catch for his career with the Bruins.

Chris Evans, RB, Bengals

I actually expect Samaje Perine to reclaim his usage on conversion downs, warranting our attention as a premier stash on deeper benches, but admit he could easily be outplayed by Evans, who averaged 7.1 yards per touch when healthy last year. Cincinnati can quietly save $1.5 million by releasing Perine out of camp, which would immediately cause everyone to fight for Evans off waivers. This selection allows us to be ahead of the curve.

Jonnu Smith, TE, Patriots

We are only one year removed from Smith receiving more guaranteed money ($31.2 million) than Hunter Henry ($25 million). Unlike last year, Smith even attended New England’s voluntary workouts over the summer.

Noah Brown, WR, Cowboys

With Michael Gallup (torn ACL) likely out for Week 1 and James Washington (Jones fracture) sidelined for "6-10 weeks," both Jalen Tolbert and Brown walk into Dallas’ starting three-wide sets by default. The assumption is Tolbert stands to benefit from the team’s eighth-most available targets at the receiver position, but Brown’s presence naturally allows OC Kellen Moore to keep CeeDee Lamb in the slot since the former ran 84% of his routes from the boundary last year. He’s a last-round hedge in case the third-round rookie comes up short.

Montrell Washington, WR, Broncos

K.J. Hamler warrants our attention as Denver’s third receiver but has only logged 70% of the Broncos’ snaps in six career games. Washington, who recorded 13/143/2 from scrimmage in his lone start against SEC competition in 2021, was also seeing reps with Russell Wilson and the first-team offense while Patrick was still healthy. Having run 91% of his routes from the slot with Samford last year, there’s a real chance the fifth-round chess piece delivers matchup-based FLEX value if Hamler were to take any steps back in his recovery.