SharpClarke's Week 8 Betting Recap: Jets-Patriots Breakdown

One of the true privileges of watching every snap each week is that I never miss a game, even the scintillating 22-17 Patriots win over the Jets last week that featured one of the lowest collective offensive performances of the season. Both Zach Wilson and Mac Jones actively tried to lose this game, but the Patriots came out on top. As a Patriots bettor, I was happy with the win (although the backdoor touchdown ruined my alternate spread bet). But I don't watch every snap to see if my bets won. I'm looking for a signal from the teams that will help me understand them moving forward. And I think we learned a lot about both teams, confirming some priors and answering some questions. Let's dive in because unless you are a fan of one of these teams, I can understand why you skipped this one.

NE 22, NYJ 17

Effectiveness Ratings

NE: 4.68
NYJ: 5.12

Effective Result: NYJ by 5.28

My biggest angle in betting this game stemmed from expecting Bill Belichick to once again force key mistakes on bad throws from Zach Wilson. This wasn't an obscure angle and I know I wasn't alone. In the end, the rest of the handicap did not matter because this one element was enough to decide the game. Wilson threw three terrible interceptions, constantly setting up short fields for the Patriots to take advantage. Some bettors hesitated on this angle after watching Justin Fields and the Bears have their way with Belichick's defense on primetime, expecting Wilson to use his mobility in similar ways. But Wilson uses mobility to try to create off-platform throws, whereas Fields uses mobility to create a multi-faceted run game and get downfield. Wilson was never a true threat to run, and so he struggled as he ran around trying to make a throw against a defense that was ready for him.

I was fortunate that Wilson played so poorly because outside of those three interceptions, the Jets were the more effective team. The Jets had some explosive plays, with Wilson throwing downfield and throwing for yards after the catch. The Patriots had one strong drive, but outside of that struggled to move the ball at all. Jones even had probably the worst throw of the entire season, which led to a long pick-six, overturned by a roughing penalty on New York. I predicted Jones would be an upgrade for the Patriots' offense based on the evidence that they have performed better relative to expectations with him at the helm than with Bailey Zappe running the show. It's close, but Jones is simply the better quarterback right now. However, in this game, it was ugly.

This brings me to my main takeaway: I think the Jets defense is actually good. I have been non-commital for weeks as they locked up Brett Rypien, Aaron Rodgers, an unprepared Skylar Thompson, and the combination of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. They have truly performed well, getting pressure with the defensive line and stopping the run. But defensive performance is so often tied to the quality of the opponent that I wasn't ready to significantly upgrade them. The Patriots presented the ultimate litmus test because they are an offense that simply abuses bad defenses and struggles against good defenses. When they can run the ball, it sets up favorable passing opportunities for Jones, who can capitalize with his accuracy and hide his flaws. It's a self-supporting system, and I expected them to expose the Jets' defense a little bit.

They did not. Instead, I saw a Jets squad that was flying around, making plays in the offensive backfield. They mostly shut down the run to the tune of 3.7 yards per carry. They sacked Jones six times. And when they weren't directly getting pressure, they had elite cover cornerbacks blanketing the Patriots' receivers and disciplined zone looks from the safeties to take away the deep throws. It all worked together so cohesively and it impressed me. Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner is living up to the hype and the defense as a whole has turned a corner. Moving forward, offenses with little margin for error, that rely on the run and struggle to generate explosive plays, should be expected to struggle against this defense. It will be interesting to see how they handle the explosive Bills this week.

Prep your Week 8 Betting Card!

Week 8 Betting Recap

This week's bets dramatically demonstrated the importance of getting the best number. I was able to get DET +4.5 against Miami on Circa, but released the bet publicly at DET +3.5 because most of the domestic books were showing +3.5 at the time. If I didn't have the +4.5 available, I would have waited and taken the +4 that showed up later in the week. Obviously, with the Lions losing by exactly four points, this bet made a huge difference. In fact, I had a winning week with +4.5 (+2.58 units) but a losing week (-1.52 units) with +3.5. Officially, it was a ho-hum 6-6 week for -1.52 units.

It once again felt like I was on the cusp of a monster week. Broncos-Jaguars Over 39.5 fell short on (another) Trevor Lawrence end-zone interception and a close call not to kick a field goal at the end by Denver. The Panthers' Moneyline lost on a missed extra point and a missed field goal in overtime. The Lions failed to cover +3.5 despite winning outright for most of the game. And the Colts had the cover on lock before allowing a crazy game-winning drive by Washington that involved two fourth-down conversions and a 40-yard jump ball to Terry McLaurin. This is all part of the game, but it emphasizes the importance of evaluating based on the process instead of results. All you can do is put yourself in a position to win and hope variance evens out.

Despite the rough start to the season, I am optimistic moving forward. I have tightened up my betting philosophy as I learn more about how betting markets work. Unfortunately, you have to do more than handicap well to be a good bettor. The art of betting is a completely different skill and one I am still working on. I will be placing fewer bets moving forward but limiting myself to high-confidence plays. Hopefully, that will impact the bottom line!

For all my bets and analysis, you can join the 4for4 Discord via a 4for4 betting subscription (10% off with code SharpClarke) and follow @SharpClarkeNFL on Twitter for alerts. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.