Thanksgiving Night Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 24, 2022

Thanksgiving Single-Game DFS: Patriots vs Vikings

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Below is a breakdown of single-game DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Week 12 Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the Minnesota Vikings. Constructing single-game lineups requires some imagination, especially for large-field tournament purposes. We want to create a lineup that reflects a certain kind of game script, choosing players who would thrive—or at least have the chance to thrive—if their teams got out to a lead or were left chasing points in the second half. There’s also the neutral script that doesn't tend to inflate opportunity for any one player or team. Understanding the likelihood of each scenario and piecing together a roster that would score a bunch of points in such a scenario is key to success in these single-game contests.

Remember: For the captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster spots.

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Vegas Spread And Total

The Vikings are 2.5 favorites in a game with a projected game total of 42.5 points.

Cheap Stacking Options

There are going to be obvious stacking plays in every showdown slate. Quarterbacks with their WR1 and/or TE and/or WR2 or a running back with their defense, for example. Below are some cheap, volatile stacking options that could serve us well in large-field tournaments.

QB Mac Jones ($14,000 FD/$13,500 DK) + WR DeVante Parker($9,500 FD/ $7,800 DK) and TE Jonnu Smith ($6,000 FD/ $4,800 DK)

We know the Patriots would love this game to be an ugly slugfest where they can just keep the ball on the ground. However, they are underdogs going up against a pass-heavy offense that may force them to ramp it up a bit.

DeVante Parker suffered a knee injury last week and is questionable to suit up for this game. If he does go, he's incredibly cheap as a starter going up against a defense allowing the sixth most fantasy points to receivers. If he doesn't go, the other options become just as interesting and Nelson Agholor would likely be the biggest beneficiary.

Jonnu has yet to have a big game but his usage is ramping up. He's played 54% of the snaps in back to back games and has been just as productive as Hunter Henry. If Parker doesn't end up playing, the two tight end stack is an option as the Vikings rank 24th in aFPA to tight ends.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Below are players near the bottom of the pricing pool in this single-game contest who could either break the slate or deliver close to nothing for DFS players. They’re best used in tournaments, where we strive for differentiation.

RB Damien Harris ($11,500 FD/ $10,200 DK)

Harris appears to have lost the starting job as he came out of the bye only playing 24% of the snaps. That said, he looked great and averaged over eight yards per carry. In a projected low-scoring environment, he could make enough big plays to matter and he's always a threat to find the end zone.

WR K.J. Osborn ($8,000 FD/$6,900 DK)

Since T.J. Hockenson joined the team, he's essentially taken over the role of the second option in the passing game. Osborn and Thielen have split up the rest and have received an almost identical 14% of the targets. They've also averaged the same amount of routes run per game. Thielen does have the higher average depth of target and the history as a red zone option but their opportunities don't suggest their prices should be as far off as they are.

Captain/MVP Picks

Justin Jefferson

This is an interesting matchup for the Vikings offense as their top-10 passing offense goes up against a Patriots defense that ranks top five in passing EPA per play and passing yards per game. We know Bill Belichick will likely look to take Jefferson away but he still projects with the highest ceiling in this game. He sits top five in red zone targets, target share, and air yards share, and leads the league in receiving yards per game.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson came out of the bye last week playing 77% of the snaps. Considering Damien Harris was active, Stevenson has officially taken over this backfield. He hasn't received fewer than 15 touches in a game since all the way back in Week 2 and he has the highest ceiling of all the Patriots players.

Dalvin Cook

Cook has been a man-possessed when playing at home this season. When surrounded by the purple people eaters he's averaging 90 rushing yards per game and he even managed to hit 70 rushing yards on 11 attempts last week while the Vikings were getting tap danced on by the Cowboys.

Jakobi Meyers

The Patriots have faced four straight defenses that ranked inside the top ten against wide receivers. In those games, Meyers averaged seven targets and just 47 receiving yards per game. Despite the poor production, that's solid volume. This week things are much easier up against a Vikings defense being passed on at the seventh-highest rate and allowing the third most passing yards per game. That's noteworthy because in the three matchups he's had against defenses that ranked inside the bottom ten against wide receivers, he's averaged nine targets and 87 receiving yards per game.

T.J. Hockenson

Since being traded to the Vikings back in Week 9, Hockenson ranks top three in targets and receptions per game. That hasn't amounted to a ton of yards but we're talking about a player that just joined the team three weeks ago. He's also faced three straight opponents that rank inside the top 10 in aFPA to tight ends. The Patriots defense is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends and if they key in on Jefferson, this could be a smash spot for Hockenson.