How to Win Underdog's Playoff Gauntlet Contest (Part 2)

There is one interesting change in the Underdog’s playoff best ball contest: The Gauntlet.

The previous contests allowed you to advance two teams in the first round. The wrinkle that they have added this year only allows for one team of six to make it out of the first round. That makes it significantly harder to hit the correct outcome. You need your team to hit the consecutive top outcome for three weeks in a row to advance to the 157-person Finals.

So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance?

I think there are several things you can do to hit the top consecutive outcome three weeks in a row to reach the Finals.

This contest is likely going to be volume-dependent. As with any contest the more bullets you have in the chamber the more likely you are going to hit the optimal outcome of you advancing to the Finals.

Team selection is also extremely important in this contest. Needing the absolute best score possible in Week 1 makes it extremely hard to click on first-round bye players. My suggestion is if you are going to gamble on the current one-seed Eagles and Bills players, take no more than four. To allow the rest of your team to compensate for the zeros it’s going to accrue in the first round. A perfect example would be taking Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, and two receivers. This leaves you six extra slots to take potent offenses on the AFC side like Miami, Cincinnati, and potentially Kansas City if they are indeed the second seed.

Team construction is also extremely important as the current rules for the Gauntlet have you needing a score for one quarterback, one running back, two receivers, and one flex spot. In addition, you will have five bench spots. If you end up taking Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen (as it currently stands) you will have to devote another spot to the quarterback position which will make you weaker at running back and receiver. The more I think about it, the more I want to have only one quarterback (preferably Patrick Mahomes) and maybe some combination of skill position players from two teams of the opposite conference.

Playoff seeding is very important to think about when building your team. As it currently stands these are the Wild Card teams and their current seeding (entering Week 17):

AFC

1. Buffalo Bills (BYE)

2. Kansas City Chiefs vs 7. Miami Dolphins

3. Cincinnati Bengals vs. 6. Los Angeles Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. 5. Baltimore Ravens

NFC

1. Philadelphia Eagles (BYE)

2. Minnesota Vikings vs. 7. Washington Commanders

3. San Francisco 49ers vs. 6. New York Giants

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. 5. Dallas Cowboys

With the current information we have, you do not want to be game-stacking these wild card matchups as it will drastically reduce your shot of winning the $100,000 prize. Think about it as having more bullets in the chamber for the Divisional Round, Conference Championship, and Finals. I’ve done a handful of Gauntlet drafts and Mitten drafts where I see folks stacking the Buccaneers and Cowboys or the Chiefs and Dolphins. The seeding can obviously change but the Cowboys are all but locked into the fifth seed which in all likelihood is going to be playing against the NFC South Division winner (and the Buccaneers have a 70% chance according to 538).

Player Takes

Here’s what we all really want right? Player takes!

These guys seem to be undervalued according to their Gauntlet ADP. (Shoutout to my guy Sam Hoppen for setting up the Underdog Gauntlet ADP Tool on 4for4.)

Mecole Hardman

My take:

The guy is going in the last round of Gauntlet drafts and arguably has the best quarterback to ever play the game. He was starting to become one of the main components of the offense until he injured himself in Week 9 against the Tennessee Titans. The last three games before his injury? Let me refresh your memory:

• Week 6 – 3 catches 42 yards and a touchdown (4 targets)
• Week 7 – 4 catches 32 yards and a touchdown (4 targets) 2 carries 28 yards two touchdowns
• Week 9 – 6 catches 79 yards and a touchdown (9 targets)

He should be ready come playoff time. Get him on your team stacks or maybe as an ancillary piece.

Trevor Lawrence

My take:

Trevor Lawrence is a great pick if you get boxed out on the top three or four quarterbacks. He has a great coaching staff and is propped up as the upcoming Messiah at QB, what could go wrong? The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to play the Baltimore Ravens if they can end up beating the Tennessee Titans in Week 18. This is one of my favorite teams to pair if I end up taking Jalen Hurts and some ancillary pieces of the Philadelphia Eagles. I also want to point out that Lamar Jackson has a concentrated offense as well. These two teams could help you advance out of the first round. (Trevor is the better value at ADP.)

Hayden Hurst

My take:

Often overlooked due to his current injury and being the fourth/fifth piece in the Cincinnati Bengals offense. Hayden Hurst has a real chance to be the inaugural Gauntlet’s Rob Gronkowski. Once again going largely undrafted he has a real chance to be a great leverage play during the playoffs.

Elijah Mitchell

My take:

Rumor has it that Elijah Mitchell is going to have his practice window open as soon as Friday. That means he’ll have 21 days to get ready and be available for the playoffs. Let’s look at the carry splits while he was healthy with Christian McCaffrey.

• 11/13/22 vs the Los Angeles Chargers Elijah Mitchell (18) – Christian McCaffrey (14)
• 11/21/22 vs the Arizona Cardinals Elijah Mitchell (9) – Christian McCaffrey (7)
• 11/27/22 vs the New Orleans Saints Elijah Mitchell (7) – Christian McCaffrey (11)

Obviously, Christian McCaffrey has the passing game on lock and they may just lean into him over the whole course of the playoffs, but Elijah Mitchell offers intriguing upside if anything happens to McCaffrey or Shanahan continues to employ a committee backfield and Mitchell falls into the endzone a couple of times during the playoffs.

That’s all for now. See you next time...