8 Kickers to Avoid in 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
My obligation as one of the few pro-kicker fantasy analysts in this space is to provide helpful information on who to draft, but I’m also here to assist with which kickers you should shy away from this season. I’ve already debunked the randomness of kicker points in a previous article and using those same data points, this piece will guide you on which legs to avoid in 2023.
More Kicker Resources: Fantasy Kickers to Target in 2023 | Debunking the Randomness of Kickers | Full-Season Kicker Projections
The Worst of the Worst
Kickers on squads with high implied team totals who are favored (preferably at home) are best for predicting fantasy outcomes from week to week. The following kickers are not on such teams and will struggle to put points on the board along with their respective offenses.
| Player | Team | Games Projected to Lose by 5+ Points | Games Implied Team Total <20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | Cardinals | 10 | 16 |
| Chase McLaughlin/Rodrigo Blankenship | Buccaneers | 4 | 11 |
| Caleb Shudak | Titans | 3 | 9 |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | Texans | 4 | 8 |
Based on current look ahead lines from 4for4's Betting Lines Tool
The Cardinals are projected to lose every single game in 2023 and possess the lowest total team points over/under on the season currently set at just 330.5 via DraftKings. There are 10 contests where Arizona is projected to lose by five or more points, with six of those spreads equaling a touchdown or more. Matt Prater's offense carries an implied team total of under 20 points in 16-of-17 games which means he won’t have much opportunity to add to your roster. Take an enormous pass on a usually reliable leg this season.
It's still unclear who will be kicking for the new-look Bucs this season, but whoever it is will be undraftable. Tampa Bay only has four contests where they are underdogs by more than five points, but there are 11 games where they are projected to put up fewer than 20 points. When you have the third-lowest team point total in the NFL it’s nearly impossible for their kicker to deliver much fantasy relevance to your squad.
Similar to the Bucs above, Tennesee isn't expected to get demolished every single week, but their offense is not going to put significant points on the board on a weekly basis. The Titans are projected to score fewer than 20 points in nine tilts in 2023 and have the fourth-lowest regular season team point total. Caleb Shudak is a name you've likely never heard of until this moment, so just let it leave your brain as quickly as it entered.
We have no idea what the Texans will look like this season with a new coaching staff and a rookie QB under center, but the books think they won't score more than 19 points in eight of their 17 games. There are only four games where Houston is projected to lose by more than five points but all of them are spreads of over a touchdown. Ka'imi Fairbairn could struggle to put points on the board for fantasy managers this season, but he could also turn into a decent streamer if this offense gels quickly and takes a step forward.
Kickers for Possible Streaming, but Probably Not
| Player | Team | Games Projected to Lose by 5+ Points | Games Implied Team Total <20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Gay | Colts | 3 | 8 |
| Joey Slye | Commanders | 3 | 8 |
| Tanner Brown | Rams | 6 | 5 |
| Eddy Pineiro | Panthers | 3 | 6 |
Based on current look ahead lines from 4for4's Betting Lines Tool
Similar to the guys above, these four kickers are on offenses that aren’t among the best in the league. However, there is some potential for weekly streaming based on matchups and the unknown heading into 2023.
After inking the largest free agent deal for a kicker in NFL history, it's safe to say Matt Gay will have no competition for his job this offseason. The Colts are still an enigma when it comes to output as they have a rookie QB and a brand new staff at the helm. They are projected to lose three contests by more than five points and have eight games where they are expected to score fewer than 20. Gay could enter the streaming conversation based on particular matchups if Anthony Richardson acclimates easily to the NFL and moves the chains for Indy, or he could struggle to add to fantasy rosters if the opposite occurs.
Washington is also in a rebuild of sorts with some positivity surrounding the presence of OC Eric Bieniemy. Vegas is not expecting this team to score many points in 2023, as they are estimated to put up fewer than 20 points in eight of their games this season. Joey Slye ended as the K22 last year, so with some offensive improvement, he could be serviceable when in need of deep streamers based on particular matchups.
The Rams should see an uptick in production over last year's offensive debacle, but they are still projected to lose six contests by more than five points. They have a rookie leg in Tanner Brown so he's one to watch as the season progresses.
Eddy Pineiro is locked in for a second season in Carolina, which is another franchise that we can't really predict this year. They are starting fresh across the board and early projections have the Panthers losing 13 games, with three spreads of five or more points. Piniero is not draftable as a consistent kicker but he may have some decent games if this offense clicks.
