10 Tips for Winning Your NFL Survivor Pool

Surviving an NFL Survivor Pool isn’t an easy task. All it takes is one poorly-timed injury and upset to send you packing in the blink of an eye. Here are 10 tips to help you win your survivor pool in 2023.

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1. Do Your Research

Prepare, Prepare, and Prepare some more. It’s crazy how often I see people in my home pools who lose and then say “Oh, I didn’t know…”. They simply looked at the schedule and picked a team they were fond of without doing any actual research. I know it may sound like common sense, but you would be amazed how many people throw caution to the wind and just wing it.

2. Look at the Point Spread

Another tip that seems like common sense but often goes ignored even by seasoned players is the point spread. Too often players try to get cute and go with their gut, ignoring the mountain of data that Vegas oddsmakers have used to come up with the point spread. I’m not saying that you should rigidly adhere to it, but it’s one of the first things that you should factor in. A good first step in narrowing down the teams each week is to simply eliminate the massive longshots, right off the bat you will narrow your options down significantly, giving you a more targeted approach. Again, common sense but not so common.

3. Consider the Ownership Rate

Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of team selection in a survivor pool is the Ownership rate. Every week there is going to be a team that will see 50% of the survivor pool picks. From time to time, that team loses, taking half the pool with them. This is a great reason to diverge from the consensus. Instead of taking the top team on the week in hopes of advancing with many of the other players, try going for a lesser-owned team in hopes that a massive upset will occur, leaving you with a significantly shortened field. Taking the easy pick is often the safest option, but it’s far from the best value. All you are doing is hoping to stay even with everyone else.

4. Balance Current Value vs. Future Value

Again, picking the best team on a given week is often the safest option. That doesn’t mean it’s the best option if you hope to win. Instead of taking a team that is a heavy favorite and will continue to be a heavy favorite for much of the season, try taking a team that is a favorite this week but will likely be an underdog in many of its remaining games. It leaves you one additional reliable team for the future while burning a team that you probably wouldn’t be able to use down the road.

5. Beware of Travel & Schedule Issues

This piggybacks onto the do your research tip. Many times, players will pick a team that appears to be an easy winner that week. What they neglect to factor in is the fact that while being a heavy favorite, they are making a cross-country trip, sometimes on short rest. I prefer to avoid any team making the trip from the far East Coast to the far West Coast and vice versa. In addition, I also prefer to avoid teams on short rest. Playing in a Sunday night game and then having to play again on Thursday night (especially around Thanksgiving) is a brutal gauntlet for teams and tends to make their games closer than they should be. On the flip side are teams coming off a bye week or a long week of rest. These teams can make use of the extra time to rest up and prepare for their opponent and often make the games closer than anticipated.

6. Let-Down Games are Real

Before you pick a team, check to see what they did the week before, and who they play the following week. Many times, a team can have a huge win against a rival and then fall flat the following week against “inferior teams”. The same can also be said about a team facing a non-conference opponent the week before a matchup with a division rival. Oftentimes, teams can overlook this “easy matchup.”

7. Factor in Pool Size

Let your pool size dictate your risk tolerance. If you play in a 12-person pool, you can make safe picks and plan for a short-term pool as it’s very likely the pool will be short. Conversely, if you play in a 40-person pool, you should expect that it will go deep into the NFL season and therefore, will need to take a long-term approach. In larger pools it never fails that at some point players will begin to run out of teams because they didn’t plan, if you were smart enough to factor this in, you will be more prepared to survive deep into the pool.

8. It’s Alright to Fade Certain Teams

Every year without fail, there are a handful of teams that I will fade. Sometimes it’s just a team that I expect to lose 14 or more games (Arizona Cardinals), and other times it’s teams that I had a hard time gauging (2022 Detroit Lions). The Lions are my hometown team, and without fail in 2022, I managed to pick the wrong outcome in 75% of their games. When I thought they were surefire winners, they would find a way to lose. When I thought they were in over their head, they played out of their minds and stole a win. We all have that team that we just can’t seem to get a read on. If you know what team that is for you, simply avoid them unless you have no alternative.

9. Don’t Go Overboard with Road Teams

You don’t have to always pick the home team but don’t pick the road team every week either. Sometimes, you will be forced to ride with a road team, but in the NFL any team can suddenly ride the home crowd to an upset. Avoid overplaying the road team. Too many times we get carried away and overplay a road team in a matchup. Typically, my road team selections are significant favorites. I leave my tighter spread picks for the team playing on their home field.

10. Don’t Look Too Far Ahead

I said before to look ahead, you must find a balance and not look too far ahead. Sure, you want to plan far enough in advance to know which teams need to be saved and which can be used up early, you don’t want to have the entire season mapped out concretely. Things change very quickly in the NFL, a team can lose their quarterback for the season and suddenly the stud team you have been saving all along is worthless. Plan, but don’t get carried away.