Week 12 vs Dallas Cowboys
Austin Ekeler rolled back the years in Week 11 against the Eagles, and while far from his prime he has averaged a robust 13.5 Half-PPR points over his last four games. He’s still ceding primary rushing work to Brian Robinson, and that may ultimately hurt his fantasy stock this week against the Cowboys. If Ekeler was THE Guy, then a clash with a Cowboys team ranking 28th in aFPA to running backs would be a welcome date in the 2024 schedule. But with Robinson leading the rushing attack, Ekeler looks more like a low-end RB2 in Week 12.
Week 11 at Philadelphia Eagles
Austin Ekeler rolled back the years in Week 10 on his way to RB5 numbers in Half-PPR formats. One big week aside, Ekeler is still only the RB31 in points per game, and shouldn't be looked upon for miracles against the Eagles. The Birds rank third in aFPA to running backs in 2024, and banking on multiple Ekeler touchdowns seems a foolhardy strategy. Ekeler should be able to give you RB2 numbers this week, but this would be more if the Commanders didn't insist on sharing out the backfield work.
Week 10 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Austin Ekeler's days of fantasy superstardom are in the past, as evidenced by his current rank of RB33 in Half-PPR points per game. But this doesn't mean he is totally without merit this week, especially as the Steelers rank 21st in aFPA to running backs. Still, expectations of anything above low-end RB2 numbers in Week 10 are likely not to be met.
Week 8 vs Chicago Bears
Austin Ekeler has looked pretty good whenever the ball has been in his hands this season, but the problem is just how infrequently this has happened. Ekeler averages 8.9 Half-PPR points per game in 2024, good enough for RB38. This is pretty much in line with his projection for Week8 with a matchup against the Bears. The Bears rank 17th in aFPA to running backs this season, but the Commanders offensive efficiency is bound to take a knock with Jayden Daniels set to miss out. RB3 numbers from Ekeler might be asking too much.
Week 7 vs Carolina Panthers
Week 6 wasn’t a banner week for Austin Ekeler, even with Brian Robinson missing out. Ekeler could only muster 8.8 Half-PPR points against the Ravens and finished as the RB27 for the week. This was, surprisingly for some, a boost to his output, as he currently sits at RB32 in points per game this season.
Week 7 should be a better day for Ekeler with an inviting matchup against the Panthers on the slate. The Panthers rank dead last in aFPA to running backs this season. Ekeler projects as a solid RB2 option this week.
Week 6 at Baltimore Ravens
Austin Ekeler has settled into a role with a lesser workload than in previous seasons, but he is getting by, in reality and fantasy. With 10.4 Half PPR points per game so far this season, he’s the RB31, which keeps him in the flex conversation most weeks.
A risky flex option might be the best outcome for Ekeler this week, even if Brian Robinson is unable to play. The Ravens have been stingy towards fantasy running backs in 2024 and rank seventh in aFPA for the position. If the Commanders are forced to take to the air more than they have been, then Ekeler does have some PPR appeal, but nothing much above an RB3 level this week.
Week 3 at Cincinnati Bengals
Austin Ekeler didn’t get to do a whole lot in Week 2, but he was fairly efficient when called upon. His eight rush attempts brought him 38 yards, and his three receptions (on three targets) brought another 47. He scored 10.0 Half PPR points and finished as the RB25.
The Bengals have allowed the seventh most rushing yards to running backs this season, while also allowing all nine of their running backs targets to be completed. Still, Ekeler is behind Brian Robinson in this backfield and has to compete with a rushing quarterback to boot. He projects to be a low-end RB3 this week.
Week 2 vs New York Giants
Austin Ekeler enjoyed a quiet debut for the Commanders in Week 1 against the Buccaneers. Ekeler carried the ball twice for 10 yards and caught all four of his targets for 52 yards. He finished as the RB34 with 8.2 Half PPR points.
The Giants let the Vikings RBs do what they wanted in Week 1, allowing 108 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground along with seven receptions (from seven targets) for another 51 yards. Still, Ekeler seems to be behind Brian Robinson in the pecking order, and with Jayden Daniels taking a bulk of the rushing work too, Ekeler might have to rely on efficiency rather than volume. He's a low-end RB3 this week.
Week 1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After years of elite fantasy production as a member of the Chargers, Ekeler finds himself a long way down to the fantasy totem pole in his new home of the Commanders' backfield. It's uncertain how much receiving work he will get, nor whether his previous goal line work will earn him the same on his new team, all of which makes him a risky fantasy pick. This is certainly true this week, as he locks horns with a Bucs defense that ranked fourth in aFPA to running backs a year ago. Ekeler looks like a very low-ceiling RB3 option this week.
Austin Ekeler had been a player fantasy managers could set their watches by several seasons as a member of the Chargers, with three top 12 RB finishes (including the overall RB1 in 2022) in seven seasons. But the bottom fell out in 2023, with Ekeler posting career lows in yards per attempt (3.5), receptions per game (3.6), and yards per target (5.9). He was the overall RB26 in Half PPR formats.
There isn't a lot of hope that Ekeler will be able to return to his glory days with Washington in 2024. The offense might not be able to get into as many goal-line situations as Ekeler found himself in during 2021-2022, and there is the ever-present fear of a mobile quarterback simply taking off and running rather than checking down to his running back. Ekeler looks like a player who could post solid, if not particularly flashy, RB3 numbers in 2024.
