Cam Newton

Fantasy Upside
Cam Newton signed a one-year deal with the Patriots in late June, instantly vaulting himself from fantasy afterthought to one of the most interesting projections in the entire league. Which Newton will New England get? The former MVP and dynamic playmaker who carried the Panthers to a Super Bowl appearance in 2015? Or the broken down, erratic quarterback under center for Carolina the last couple of seasons? Only time will tell, but there are reasons to be optimistic about Newton in New England. Newton has historically been an excellent fantasy quarterback outside of recent seasons when he has been hampered by various injuries. Newton’s resume includes five seasons where he finished among the top four fantasy scorers at the position. His mobility, size and nose for the goal line provide him massive rushing and touchdown upside in a good offense. Newton has 58 career rushing touchdowns and has cleared 500 yards rushing in six of eight seasons where he played 14 or more games. His 2019 stats are ugly, but he only played in two games and was clearly limited by a foot injury suffered during the preseason. Newton’s struggles in recent years appear to stem from his injuries rather than regression in his skills under center. Assuming he is healthy and wins the starting job, Newton will have legitimate QB1 upside when paired with Bill Belichick who will surely leave no stone unturned in maximizing his new quarterback’s unique talents.

Fantasy Downside
Newton’s massive upside is accompanied by massive risk. His injury history since 2016 is troubling, particularly for a quarterback who relies on his mobility. Newton has had two surgeries on his throwing shoulder since 2016 and suffered the aforementioned Lisfranc fracture during last year’s preseason. Newton’s passing upside is also limited. The Patriots appear likely to roll out a run-heavy offense and he will have one of the weakest skill groups in the league to throw to. Finally, there is always the possibility that Newton never even wins the starting job. The Patriots made it clear that he was not guaranteed the job and claim to be excited about Jarrett Stidham’s prospects as a starting quarterback. While Newton should beat Stidham out to be the starter, there is a possibility Newton does not even start Week 1.

2020 Bottom Line
A healthy Cam Newton has historically been one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy and he could not ask for a better environment to make a comeback than New England. Newton should win the starting job and could easily finish as a QB1, but he carries as much risk as any quarterback on the board. Newton’s late-round ADP makes him a worthy gamble as a cheap option at the position.

Week 2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cam Newton had a rough start to the season, throwing for 239 yards, an interception and a fumble in an opening-day loss to the Rams. It was a tight game, however, and one in which the Panthers leaned on the run game and on short passes to the versatile Christian McCaffrey. Expect a similar strategy throughout the rest of the season, although if Cam can take a little better care of the ball, some of those drives should yield better results. He’s still a good fantasy option week-to-week.

Against the Buccaneers in Week 2, Cam should have an easier time. The 49ers offense struggled against them in Week 1, but only the Raiders allowed more points per game last season. While it’s possible they are markedly improved, it’s more likely the 49ers sputtered out of the gate. Cam is a high-upside QB1 option in most weeks, and he should bounce back against a team he threw four touchdowns and 547 yards against over two matchups last year.

Fantasy Upside

Cam Newton’s best fantasy asset is his ability to make up for bad passing games with rushing production. Last year, he rushed for 488 yards and four touchdowns to go along with 3,395 yards and 24 touchdowns through the air. In his first season under Norv Turner, he completed a career-high 67.9% of his passes and he has arguably the best pass-catching back in the league in Christian McCaffrey to help him out. D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and McCaffrey create a tremendous array of weapons for Newton and as long as he stays healthy, he should be a consistent fantasy producer.

Fantasy Downside

Newton’s body has been breaking down over the past few seasons due to the number of vicious hits he’s subjected to. He’s had at least 90 carries every season of his eight-year career, and defenders tee off on him. He’s coming off a shoulder surgery and at age 30, he could struggle to take the same punishment he’s used to. He missed two games last season and was banged up all year.

2019 Bottom Line

Newton has some risk associated with him because of his potential for injury, but he’s currently being undervalued. He’s accounted for at least 28 touchdowns in three of his past four seasons and has arguably the best set of weapons he’s ever had. He’s a bargain at his ninth-round ADP and is evidence that the quarterback position continues to be filled with talent in the middle rounds.