2022 Fantasy Upside
Among WRs to play at least 10 games, Chris Godwin finished as WR10, WR15, and WR2 in average scoring (half-PPR) the past three seasons. He saw some of his numbers dip with the arrival of Antonio Brown, but AB is gone now, and so is Rob Gronkowski. But Tom Brady is back, so Tampa Bay remains one of the league’s most explosive offenses. With Brown gone, we wouldn’t be surprised if Godwin’s target share increases compared to the previous two seasons. And Godwin was already a target monster, averaging 9.1 targets per game last season. When healthy, Godwin is capable of putting up WR1 numbers in this offense.
2022 Fantasy Downside
The obvious (and really only) downside to Godwin is the fact he’s recovering from a torn ACL and MCL. Not only that, but he suffered the injury in Week 15 of last season, meaning it’ll be a while before he returns. He’s expected to start the season on the PUP list, but the question is how long he’ll be out. A PUP list designation would be a bare minimum four week absence, but it’s likely he misses more than that. The Bucs brought Godwin back on a long-term deal (3-year, $60M), so they won’t want to rush their WR back. Tampa Bay will also want Godwin more for the stretch run of the season rather than the start.
2022 Bottom Line
Godwin is one of the worst value picks when you compare his current ADP to 4for4’s positional rankings. He’s around the 25th WR off the board, but he’s closer to WR60 in our rankings. There’s no question about his talent when he’s healthy. When Godwin returns, he’ll likely put up WR1 numbers with nearly 10 targets a game. But at his current ADP, you’re passing on a lot of talented WRs who are going to play the entire year. You’ll have to feel really comfortable with letting Godwin sit on your team’s IR for the early part of the season. It’s too difficult to recommend drafting Godwin at his current ADP.