Fantasy Upside
After signing a five-year, $36 million deal this offseason, Coby Fleener figures to play a big role in the Saints' offense. Fleener has caught at least 50 passes in each of the past three seasons, but he's no longer in a timeshare with Dwayne Allen so his numbers should skyrocket. Drew Brees and Sean Payton love to use their tight ends in the passing game and it's not unrealistic to envision the Saints using Fleener in the same manner they used Jimmy Graham before trading him to Seattle. Even Ben Watson was targeted 110 times last year in New Orleans, so Fleener's fantasy stock has never been higher.
Fantasy Downside
Despite being a 6-foot-6, 251-pound catch-first tight end, Fleener often frustrated fantasy owners in Indy. After finishing as fantasy's TE6 in 2014, Fleener dropped all the way down to TE 22 last season as his targets (92 to 84), yardage (774 to 491) and touchdown (8 to 3) numbers all fell. There's also a ton of preseason hype surrounding Fleener this year, making him a prime candidate to be over-drafted.
2016 Bottom Line
Fleener is our TE4 heading into the season. We project him to catch 75 passes for 871 yards and five touchdowns, making him a solid TE1. In CBS, ESPN, MFL, NFL.com and Yahoo! leagues, Fleener is being drafted, on average, after Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce, Tyler Eifert and Delaine Walker. So despite the possibility that Fleener could be over hyped pre-draft, his ADP would suggest otherwise. He's a fantastic value in the seventh (12-team) or eighth (10-team) round and could explode playing in Payton's offense.