2022 Fantasy Upside
Derek Carr had a nice start to last season, averaging 401 yards and landing at QB9 through the first three games. It was only after the team fell apart off the field that he started to slump, though he still finished as the QB14. Carr has been remarkably steady, often playing hurt and posting 4,000+ yards in each of his last four seasons, including a career-high 4,804 in 2021. Now entering his age-31 year, he may be poised for his best season yet. Josh McDaniels arrives as head coach after working with Tom Brady for 10 of the last 15 years and he’ll have the best weapons of his career thanks to the addition of DaVante Adams at wide receiver. Carr still has an elite tight end in Darren Waller, a solid running game to support him, and an excellent slot receiver in Hunter Renfrow.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Carr has always seemed a hair below the Tier 2 quarterbacks in the league and it’s possible we’ve seen his best already. McDaniels may or may not have the same success without Tom Brady, though he devised clever ways last season to put Mac Jones in the best position to succeed. Carr also offers very little as a runner, averaging 5.9 yards rushing per game over his career – though he did have three rushing touchdowns in 2020.
2022 Bottom Line
Carr has value. He’s being drafted as the QB14 and he finished last season as the QB14. If you believe less dysfunction, better weapons, and upside in coaching can give him an uptick in scoring, he’s a bargain in the ninth round. He’s only thrown for more than 30 touchdowns once in his career, way back in 2015, but if he can top that number and maintain his yardage totals from last season, there’s a chance he greatly outperforms his ADP.