Fantasy Upside
With Tennessee's offensive infrastructure collapsing around him throughout 2022, Derrick Henry still managed to finish as a top-five RB in fantasy by amassing 1,936 total yards and 13 touchdowns on a robust 349 touches. Henry remains one of the few running backs left in the NFL who is his team's offensive focal point and unquestioned workhorse. Ryan Tannehill is back under center to start the 2023 season, which can only help Henry's efficiency as the Titans posed virtually no threat through the air with Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs starting. One bright spot from last season was Henry's 33 receptions for 398 receiving yards, both career-highs for him. We will have to see if Henry's recent bump in receiving usage continues with Tannehill starting again, but if it does, it would only reinforce his already strong floor. Henry will once again be a strong bet to lead the league in carries and rushing yards, and is a virtual lock for 300+ touches if he plays a full season. As usual, Henry projects as a solid RB1 option for fantasy.
Fantasy Downside
Henry will turn 30 years old in January and is rapidly approaching the point in his career when RBs tend to suffer a big drop in production. Henry's advanced metrics show declining efficiency last year, although some of that can probably be attributed to the disastrous offense surrounding him for stretches. Henry's 5.1 yards per touch was only good for 23rd amongst RBs, and that was with him still managing to break the fifth-most tackles of anyone at the position. Henry lived on volume more than ever in 2022, and while he remains a great bet to see a ton of carries, the risk in taking him as your RB1 rises when he is not breaking as many long runs. Henry is one of the most athletically gifted players in the NFL, but his eventual decline is inevitable and may have already started.
2023 Bottom Line
Henry still projects for one of the league's best workloads at the RB position and will post massive numbers with even average efficiency if he stays healthy for 17 games. The fact that the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins is a great sign for Henry as it now appears unlikely the Titans bench Tannehill for rookie Will Levis this year. Henry's uncertain passing game role keeps him from the elite tier of fantasy backs, but he's still a surefire RB1 and second round pick.