Fantasy Upside
It's Drew Brees. End of story. Ok, we'll talk about him. Brees posted yet another top-eight fantasy scoring season in 2018, despite not throwing for 4,000 yards, though he was only eight yards shy of 4,000. And that's with him not playing in Week 17 since the Saints had already locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Brees also posted an outstanding 32-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, one of the best we've ever seen in history. Brees also posted six games of at least 300 passing yards, including 439 yards in the Week 1 shootout against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And if you're looking for touchdowns, Brees is more likely than not to throw multiple touchdowns in a game, as he accomplished that feat nine times in 2018, reaching three touchdown passes three times and posting three games with four touchdown passes. The offense is intact from 2018 with the addition of tight end Jared Cook. As long as Brees has Sean Payton, the offense will always have high expectations, and Brees will likely hit 4,000 yards yet again.
Fantasy Downside
Brees has hit the magical age of 40, the age where quarterbacks start to tail off unless your name is Tom Brady. Brees is entering a contract year and the Saints are at least thinking about the possibility of turning the offense over to Teddy Bridgewater in 2020. It's also more than likely that Brees' TD-to-INT ratio regresses, simply because of how high it was. That's a tough number to repeat, especially at 40 years old. Also, as John Paulsen notes, the Saints' offense has become more run-focused behind Alvin Kamara. Paulsen writes "from 2006 to 2016, the Saints averaged 641.5 pass attempts per season. Over the last two seasons, they have averaged 527.5 pass attempts."
Bottom Line
Brees' days as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback are over with his age and possible looming retirement and more attention to the rushing attack. You can also thank the likes of Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson and Andrew Luck, to name a few for Brees falling down the fantasy echelon. But until we see Brees fall off the face of the earth, which seems far away, Brees is almost assured of another top-ten fantasy finish.