Fantasy Upside
Fantasy owners were undoubtedly disappointed in Drew Brees' 2017 production. He attempted just 536 passes and tossed only 23 touchdowns, both were the lowest totals of his career as a Saint. That said, while his production was disappointing for fantasy owners, there were no signs of decline from a real football perspective. He completed 72 percent of his passes, which set the NFL record, and his 8.1 yards per pass attempt was his best mark since 2011 (that too ranked first in the league). Despite ranking ninth overall in attempts, Brees still led the NFL in completions with 386. Thus, it's not as if we're watching a once-great quarterback fall apart.
New Orleans' run-game production was excellent and so was the defense, the latter of which has been a rarity since Brees arrived. Thus, he simply didn't have to do as much to win games. But with Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Michael Thomas back, plus the addition of Cameron Meredith (and thus, the ability to convert more out of three-plus wide receiver sets), Brees should post numbers more similar to 2016 than 2017.
Fantasy Downside
We all saw the downside a year ago when Brees attempted the fewest passes of his Saint career. He threw for just 23 touchdowns and finished as fantasy's QB11, which was his lowest ranking since his third season in the NFL. We've become accustomed to Brees having to throw for big yardage and high touchdown numbers to out-pace his defense. If the Saints defense is as good in 2018 as it was in 2017, then Sean Payton can save the wear and tear on Brees' shoulder and continue to use him more as a game manager as opposed to a fantasy monster.
One more reason to be down on Brees: The Saints will face a first-place schedule in 2018 after winning the NFC South last year. On top of playing against the likes of Carolina and Atlanta twice inside the division, the Saints will also play the Vikings, Rams, and Eagles this year, not to mention the Steelers and the Ravens with the NFC South playing the AFC North this season.
2018 Bottom Line
One thing to keep in mind about Brees' down fantasy year in 2017 is that his offensive line was incredibly banged-up throughout the season and his surrounding weapons weren't as good as in previous years. Brandin Cooks was traded before the season, Willie Snead was suspended three games and never got his footing once he returned, and Coby Fleener was injured in training camp and then was incredibly inefficient throughout the season. Thomas and Kamara are studs and with the addition of Meredith (the Bears' most successful wide receiver two years ago), Brees will have a better complement of weapons this year than he had in 2017. All of this is to say that with an ADP of 10.04 in 10-team leagues, Brees feels undervalued heading into 2018.