Fantasy Upside
As Fantasy Pros put it, "When James Conner was healthy in 2022, it was hard to argue with his elite production and role in the Arizona Cardinals offense." Indeed, 4for4's John Paulsen notes from Week 10 to Week 17, he was the fantasy RB5, averaging 21.3 touches for 102 total yards and 1.0 touchdown per game. He also played over 90 percent of the team's offensive snaps in five different games. Adding to the positive vibe, this isn't Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid offense anymore. New coach Jonathan Gannon hired a first-time offensive coordinator in Drew Petzing whose work history leaves little for fantasy managers to go on. He's worked mainly with quarterbacks and receivers in Cleveland and Minnesota, but his former boss in each location, Kevin Stefanski, does like to run the ball.
Fantasy Downside
Conner missed four games entirely and left three other games early because of injuries last season. He just turned 28 and Fantasy Pros notes he didn’t fare particularly well in the yards after contact or tackle-breaking advanced metrics. But age and the "when healthy" caveat aren't the only concerns here. The Cardinals, a team that started the 2021 season 10-2, has come completely undone. So the coaching change, uncertainty surrounding Murray and the overall direction the team is going in need to be taken into account.
2023 Bottom Line
Without a timetable for Murray's return from his ACL injury and with DeAndre Hopkins gone, someone on this team needs to score the touchdowns, why not the guy with two seasons of double-digit TDs on his ledger? The Cardinals made no significant additions at the position in the draft and free agency, leaving Conner with a stranglehold on this backfield, and his ability as a receiver shouldn't be overlooked. Given the anticipated workload, Conner projects to be a very good value given his ADP.