Fantasy Upside
Michael Thomas finally looks healthy again. That in itself is an upside. If he can stay healthy, Thomas has a chance to be a nice PPR receiver again, like the old days. Thomas is still a talented receiver and also doesn't have to worry about being the focal point of defenses. That will be Chris Olave. He certainly won't have 150 targets, but 75 is definitely realistic.
Fantasy Downside
Will he stay healthy? That's the biggest question. We're talking about a player that played three games last season, missed the entire 2021 season and played only seven games in 2020. His last full season was 2019, which feels like it was forever ago. Chris Olave is also a star in the making and will command most of the targets from Derek Carr. Rashid Shaheed is an up-and-coming receiver in his own right, so Thomas will have to share the wealth a bit.
2023 Bottom Line
Thomas is certainly worth the roll of the dice based on his current ADP. He's barely cracking the top 50 WRs being drafted on Underdog. Even half a season of Thomas should help him outproduce that spot. Closer to a full season and Thomas could be one of the steals of drafts. If he's still on the board getting into the double-digit rounds, take him as an excellent lottery ticket option.