Mike Evans

Week 2 at New Orleans Saints

Mike Evans had a solid Week 1, finishing 5-71-1 on a team-high seven targets. It's even more impressive when you consider he had an injury scare during the game. Evans should continue to lead the team in targets as Chris Godwin has been sidelined with another injury. Although Evans will draw the Saints this week, a team he's struggled against in his career. In his last six games vs. New Orleans, Evans has averaged 2.0 receptions for 32.8 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. They aren't great numbers, but Evans did top 60 yards in two of those games. There's a chance for a dud game from Evans, but he should still be viewed as a must-start WR1. If nothing else, Evans is a strong redzone threat who can be bailed out with a score. Although his health is worth monitoring as he was listed as DNP on Thursday with a calf injury.

2022 Fantasy Upside
Mike Evans continued his streak of 1,000-yard seasons last year, which is impressive considering the depth of talent that included Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski. But now Godwin is returning from a torn ACL, Brown left in a shirtless rampage, and Gronk retired. So Evans will become the primary focus for at least the first half of the season until Godwin returns. In the past three seasons since Godwin has become a starter, Evans averaged 113.7 targets per season. In Evans’ first five seasons in the league, he averaged 143.4 targets per season. While he may not quite reach 140 targets this year, we should see an increase in targets overall in 2022. And with Tom Brady returning at QB, they will be quality targets. In the past two seasons with Brady at QB, Evans has finished as WR9 and WR10, and we expect Evans to be a top-10 fantasy WR again in year three.

2022 Fantasy Downside
Evans has a tendency to have some really bad games, including four games with less than 30 yards and no touchdowns last season, and three games in 2020 with 10 receiving yards or less. He’s also been bailed out a few times with his red zone proficiency, scoring a touchdown in what would have otherwise been a low-scoring game. Evans is not a PPR darling who is going to get you 90+ receptions. He’s only reached that milestone once in his career and that was when he saw 173 targets, a number he’s unlikely to reach again. Evans will be 29 when the season starts, which is past the peak for a WR.

2022 Bottom Line
The biggest complaint about Evans heading into last season was the crowded receiving corps in Tampa Bay, but with Brown and Gronk gone it really opens the door. Evans has already been an incredibly reliable fantasy option with eight straight seasons of 1,000 receiving yards, while averaging 9.3 touchdowns per year. With Brady returning, Evans should see another 1K year with double-digit touchdowns if he’s able to stay healthy. And so far in his career, Evans has remained healthy, playing at least 13 games every year. Evans should be viewed as a top-10 WR this year, available in the late-second or early-third rounds of 12 team leagues.