Nick Chubb

Week 4 at Vikings

Chubb currently ranks as RB8 in half-PPR points per game, but he's only playing on 52.74% of the snaps while averaging 17 touches. Chubb hasn't been a factor in the passing game at all, catching all three of his targets for 21 yards this season. Having said that, this is one of the best pure runners in football (5.5 YPC), running behind an elite offensive line. He's an RB1 on a weekly basis, but the ceiling is capped due to usage.

Chubb goes up against a Vikings defense that ranks 21st in aFPA to running backs. This team gave up big games to Joe Mixon (150 yards on 33 touches), and Chris Carson (6.7 YPC), so this is an exploitable matchup for Chubb. There's also a good chance that he finds the endzone given his high touchdown equity in a projected high-scoring game.

Week 2 vs. Texans

Chubb rushed for 83 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries in Week 1 against the Chiefs. He also added two receptions for 23 yards. Chubb finished as the RB3 in half-PPR formats despite only getting 17 touches. He played only 52.54% of the snaps last week, which demonstrates his risk since he doesn't get the same usage as some of the other elite RB1s in the league.

Chubb is in a smash spot against the Texans this week. This is a defense that ranked 31st in aFPA last season. The Browns should be able to control this game and win by double-digits, setting up a run-heavy game script for Chubb to do major damage. The risk here is that the game gets out of hand early and the Browns opt to rest Chubb and let Kareem Hunt carry the load. However, this matchup is too good to worry about something like that, so we need to consider Chubb a top-5 RB this week.

Fantasy Upside

Nick Chubb rushed for 1,067 yards and 12 touchdowns on 190 carries (5.6 Y/A). He also caught 16-of-18 targets for 150 yards in 12 games. Despite his lack of usage in the passing game, Chubb still finished as RB5 in half-PPR points per game. This is a special runner who plays in an offense that projects to be one of the best in the NFL. He also runs behind one of the most dominant offensive lines in the league. Chubb has the upside to rush for 1,300+ yards and 15+ touchdowns, which would make him a premium fantasy asset even with his status as a zero in the passing game. If Kareem Hunt were forced to miss time due to injury, Chubb would be right beside Derrick Henry as a dominant bell-cow running back. We could also see Chubb catch more passes in Hunt’s absence. Chubb provides a nice combination of floor and upside.

Fantasy Downside
Since Chubb is barely used in the passing game and Kareem Hunt is still taking away touches, Chubb needs to be super-efficient in order to retain his status as a Top-12 running back. Last season, Chubb rushed for a career-high 5.6 yards per carry and it’s tough to maintain that type of efficiency. There’s also a low chance that if Hunt plays above expectation, he could carve out a larger role in the offense. Having said that, Chubb is still an elite runner, so it’s reasonable to project him as one of the more efficient backs in the league, especially given his strong team context.

2021 Bottom Line
Chubb is a strong bet for 1,200+ rushing yards and 10+ touchdowns with sky-high upside if Hunt were forced to miss time. Currently being drafted as RB9 (13.1 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, Chubb is priced appropriately given his floor and upside. Even in a worst-case scenario, Chubb should be able to provide Top-15 value at RB. Don’t worry too much about Hunt, as this is still a run-heavy offense with enough volume to go around for both backs to provide production. At the same time, it’s tough to see Chubb finishing in the Top-3 at his position without an injury to Hunt.