Samaje Perine

Week 4 at Chicago Bears
Samaje Perine continues to work well behind Javonte Williams in the Denver backfield and only saw five touches in Week 3 when the Broncos got destroyed by the Dolphins in Miami. Even in an extreme negative game script, Perine could not earn more than three targets in the passing game and he only projects for a couple of carries each week. The Broncos get a great matchup this week against the Bears' weak defense, but unless Perine starts to see more usage he cannot be started with any confidence in fantasy.

Week 2 vs. Washington Commanders
Samaje Perine had a role in the Denver offense in Week 1, but he took a clear backseat to Javonte Williams. Perine got eight carries and saw four targets, while Williams received 13 carries to go along with six targets. This backfield looks like it will be split in Williams' favor unless his knee issues flare up during the season. Perine will have to rely largely on third-down and change of pace duties, which is a difficult proposition for fantasy in an offense that has not consistently produced since Russell Wilson arrived to play quarterback. Perine gets a small boost in full-PPR formats, but even with that he remains an unexciting flex option at best given how he was used in Week 1.

Fantasy Upside
After spending most of his career in Cincinnati as the backup to Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine now transitions to Denver where he will take some pass catching work, and could be in line for more than that if Javonte Williams needs to be eased in following a catastrophic knee injury last season. Last year, Perine saw 51 targets and caught 38 of them for 287 yards on a limited snap share of 39%. He also managed to find the end zone six times, a good number for someone being used behind a lead back. While Williams is a good pass catcher, it's very difficult to envision him taking on a full workload only 11 months removed from tearing multiple ligaments in his knee, which would thrust Perine into a large role out of necessity right away. Perine has standalone value as Williams is highly unlikely to dominate touches coming off the injury, but he also has significant contingent value should Williams' knee not cooperate once the season gets going. Perine looks like an ideal zero-RB piece given his current ADP and potential workload.

Fantasy Downside
Perine is nearly 28 years old and has never operated as a lead back outside of games when Mixon suffered some sort of injury. He is a below-average athlete for the NFL level and would likely share the rushing workload with another back even if Williams missed time coming off the injury. Furthermore, Williams was not placed on the PUP list to start training camp and has been practicing with the team as if he will be ready to go for Week 1. If Williams is anywhere near 100% at the start of the season, Perine will largely be relegated to third-down duties and have to rely on receptions for most of his statistical production. Perine is an interesting player to draft given the uncertainty surrounding Williams' health, but a ton of his value is contingent on other players which is not ideal when drafting someone expected to start every week in fantasy.

2023 Bottom Line
Perine's 2023 fantasy value hinges in large part on how Williams does in his return from the injury suffered in Week 4 of last season. Perine will likely be a decent flex option to open the season as it is exceedingly difficult to imagine Williams getting anywhere near a full workload so soon after the injury. However, he brings real risk that his production will fade significantly over the course of the season. He gets a boost in PPR leagues, but Perine is probably best viewed as a RB4 for fantasy draft purposes.