Sammy Watkins

Week 2 at Oakland Raiders

We mentioned last week how Sammy Watkins was sneakily valuable in 2018, but there was no way of predicting what he'd do in Week 1. He led all fantasy wideouts by dominating with a 9-198-3 stat line (on 11 targets). He was already playing well early, but his big game was mostly due to the fact Tyreek Hill left the game early due to injury. Hill is expected to be sidelined for several weeks, which makes Watkins a hot commodity.

It'd be foolish to expect a repeat of his Week 1 effort, but he should be able to put up big numbers again. He's a talented wide receiver in an explosive offense with not much depth at the receiver position. On top of all that, he gets a great matchup against Oakland. He's now a must-start WR1 option for Week 2.

Fantasy Upside
Sammy Watkins was a sneakily good option in 2018 before his injury sidelined him for the season. His points per game were affected by a few low-snap outings (7%, 15%). If you count those out, he was on a 4.9-64-.38 pace, which comes out to 78-1030-6 over the course of the season. He’s only 26 years old with a lot of talent in a great offense with arguably the best quarterback in the league.

Fantasy Downside
Watkins’ downside for 2019 is the same as it’s been for his entire career: injuries. He’s missed 18 of his last 64 games, and even when he doesn’t miss entire games he may play through injuries and limit his full value. He hasn’t surpassed 600+ receiving yards in any of his last three seasons, so while the talent is clearly there, the production just hasn’t been.

2019 Bottom Line
When healthy, Watkins can put up WR2 numbers. He was on pace for it last season before being sidelined. But his injury risk knocks him down to WR3 range. He’s a high-risk, high-reward type of player. If you have other talented receivers in your lineup, it might be worth the risk to draft Watkins so you won’t be burned in case he flops. But if you’re able to select him later in the draft, he could end up being a real value pick.