Fantasy Upside
T.Y. Hilton finished as the fantasy WR5 last season. His 17.0 PPR points per game were good enough for seventh at the position. His 155 targets last season were fourth in the NFL, which should stabilize his floor again in 2017. Hilton also still averaged 9 targets per game last year when Donte Moncrief was healthy.
Fantasy Downside
Andrew Luck's early season availability is in question, which would hurt Hilton for the first couple of weeks, judging by Hilton's poor 2015 fantasy performance without his quarterback. Hilton also has never had high touchdown upside, with a career-high seven in 2014. Hilton's targets weren't affected when Moncrief was healthy last year, but his fantasy points sure were. Hilton averaged 19.8 PPR fantasy points per game when Moncrief was out but only 14.8 when Moncrief played. That was WR15 in those weeks for Hilton.
2017 Bottom Line
Hilton's production in games Moncrief played has to be considered his floor if Luck is healthy. That means there is some risk with his ADP as the eighth WR off the board. But his target share paired with one of the best quarterbacks in the game should not be overlooked. Just don't expect a top-3 WR finish for Hilton.