Fantasy Upside
Fantasy players are aware of Tyler Higbee’s league-winning end to the 2019 season. He did so as the lead tight end for the Rams with Gerald Everett hurt. Everett is now in Seattle and Higbee has the opportunity to play as the unquestioned TE1 in Los Angeles. In eight games since 2017 without Everett in the lineup, Higbee averaged 12.86 half PPR points compared to 4.7 points with Everett. Higbee also saw three more receptions, 0.50 touchdowns, 3.8 targets, and 35.5 more yards per game without Everett (courtesy RotoViz Splits App). Higbee also out-targeted and had more receptions and yards per game in 2020.
Did I mention Higbee gets a quarterback upgrade with Matthew Stafford? Higbee has the ability to stretch the field (8.0 Average Depth of Target) and should see an uptick in workload as Stafford utilizes the tight end position.
Fantasy Downside
The Rams drafted Brycen Hopkins in the fourth round in 2020 with the knowledge that Everett and/or Higbee would not be retained. Los Angeles ran two-tight end sets no fewer than 33% of offensive snaps in any given week last season. Everett averaged 3.8 targets and 2.6 receptions per game alongside Higbee. Those averages were 0.2 and 0.3 behind Higbee. I doubt every vacated target goes to Higbee, especially with Hopkins drafted to be a receiving tight end. Higbee is also 28-years old and is in the window for TE regression.
Higbee has seven games against top-10 defenses against the tight end position according to 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Positional Defensive Rankings.
2021 Bottom Line
The arrival of Stafford and the departure of Everett give Higbee the best opportunity at fantasy production of his career. Higbee’s toughest hurdles to being a top-end fantasy tight end are his schedule and offensive scheme’s use of two-tight end formations. Higbee is a TE1 ahead of Week 1 because of his talent and overall shallow positional depth.
