2022 Fantasy Upside
Tyreek Hill has been one of the best at his position ever since taking a lead role in 2017. In fact, he has the 8th-most receptions, 4th-most receiving yards, and 2nd-most receiving touchdowns in that span. He’s been incredibly consistent, finishing as WR8, WR1, WR30 (injured), WR2, and WR6 in those years. He gets a change of scenery in Miami where he joins creative HC Mike McDaniel, who made Deebo Samuel WR3 last season. While we may not see the same running back usage out of Hill that we saw with Samuel, we’ve seen Hill on the ground plenty throughout his career as he has 93 career rush attempts.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Hill gets a downgrade at QB as he goes from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. He also joins a different system. Kansas City threw the ball 675 times last season, good for second-most in the league. McDaniel’s 49ers team had 514 attempts, fourth-fewest in the league. Hill also goes from being the guy in Kansas City to just one of the guys in Miami. Yes, he’ll be WR1, but there’s more talent in the WR corps here with Jaylen Waddle and Cedrick Wilson. All of this leads to fewer targets on fewer pass attempts, which ultimately leads to less production.
2022 Bottom Line
Hill is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, and should still be viewed as a WR1 in fantasy. The difference this year, however, is he won’t be the WR1 most likely. In the past four seasons, Hill has averaged 80.5 receiving yards per game, and it’s really difficult to see that continuing in 2022 in Miami. With a new system and a new QB, Hill goes from being a top-5 WR to more like a top-10 WR. He’s still good, but he’s not that elite option you consider spending a 1st-round pick on. He’s more of a mid 2nd-round pick.