Week 17 at New York Jets
Antonio Brown had a nice return to the lineup, seeing a team-high 15 targets while finishing 10-101. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined, AB hogged the targets and had a huge role in the offense. He also moved closer to some incentives, which Tom Brady could try to hit in the coming weeks. Brown needs 11 receptions, 281 yards and two more touchdowns to reach three different incentives in his contract. When Brown played on the Patriots, we saw Brady force-feed the WR on three shovel passes to reach an incentive. So it's not inconceivable to see him do the same down the stretch in Tampa Bay. Brown should be viewed as a must-start WR1 this week, assuming he's healthy. He had a surprise DNP on Thursday with a designated ankle injury, so his health is worth monitoring. But assuming he's fine, we'd start him with confidence.
Week 16 at Carolina Panthers
Antonio Brown is fresh off of suspension and ready to play this week, which is just in time for the Bucs. Tampa Bay lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injury last week (and also lost RB Leonard Fournette). Brown is still dealing with an injury himself (ankle) and has been limited in practice, but is expected to play. Godwin (IR) is definitely out, and Evans is likely out, meaning Brown will be Tom Brady's top target against the Panthers. It's unfortunately a tough matchup as Carolina has given up the fifth-fewest receptions and fourth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this year. Although they've oddly allowed the 10th-most receiving touchdowns to WRs. Looking past the matchup, though, Brown will be the top option in a high-powered offense, and we've seen Brown play well already this year. He's a borderline WR1 with Evans and Godwin out.
Week 7 vs. Chicago Bears
UPDATE: Antonio Brown has been ruled out this week with an ankle injury so take him out of your fantasy lineups unless you want a 0.
Antonio Brown saw a team-high 13 targets last week, turning in another great performance with a stat line of 9-93-1. Despite missing an entire game, Brown is nearly the Bucs' leader in receptions and receiving yards, being two off the lead from each. And he's tied for the most touchdowns on the team with four. He gets an OK matchup against the Bears this week, who are 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers. We'd expect things to keep going as they have been, with Brown having yet another productive game. He'll be a high-end WR2 play in Week 7.
Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles
Business is boomin' as Antonio Brown finished 7-124-2 last week against the Dolphins on eight targets. In the three games this season where Brown has played at least 50% of the offensive snaps, he's averaging 6.3 receptions for 102 yards and 1.0 touchdowns. It's pretty remarkable he has this type of production considering how many other weapons the Bucs have in this offense. He'll draw a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, who have allowed the fewest total receptions to wide receivers so far this season, and the third-fewest receiving yards. Still, it's hard to ignore Brown's production this season. So even though it's a tough matchup, Brown can still be viewed as a mid-range WR2 vs. the Eagles.
Week 5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Antonio Brown returned last week after missing Week 3 and finished 7-63 on 11 targets. It's been an odd season for AB, who came out swinging in Week 1 with a 5-121-1 performance. Then he was held to a single catch in Week 2 before missing Week 3. Brown is the most volatile of the three Bucs receivers, but he's still a strong play on most weeks. He'll be a lower-end WR2 or strong WR3 play in a decent matchup against the Dolphins in Week 5.
Week 4 at New England Patriots
Antonio Brown had a strong Week 1 (121 yards), then was held to one catch for 17 yards in Week 2 (while playing 44% of the snaps) before being inactive in Week 3 due to being on the COVID list. Brown should return this week against his former team the Patriots, where we'd expect some sort of middle ground between his two performances so far this season. The Patriots have a good pass defense, but it's difficult to contain all three of the Bucs' receivers. We like Brown as a solid WR3 play this week against New England.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Antonio Brown proved he's still an extremely talented option and more than just the Bucs' third WR. He finished 5-121-1 on seven targets. Although it is a nice stat line, the snap counts do make it obvious that the Bucs view him as option No. 3. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missed a combined five snaps while Brown played on 65% of the offensive snaps. But the snap counts don't matter too much as long as Brown is being effective, which he has been since joining the Bucs at the midway point last season. We expect another strong game from Brown in Week 2 in a favorable matchup against the Falcons. Brown torched Atlanta in both games last season, finishing 5-93-1 in the first game and 11-138-2 in the second game. We like him as a solid WR2 play this week.
Week 1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Antonio Brown averaged more targets per game (7.8) than Chris Godwin (7.0) and Mike Evans (6.8) last season, and he's been brought back for another year. Brown is absolutely a big part of this offense despite joining late to a crowded WR corps. He's in for a solid Week 1 matchup against the Cowboys, and his stock could go up if Godwin's quad injury is serious. Even if Godwin plays, we like Brown as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 play.
Fantasy Upside
Antonio Brown had a strong impact for the Bucs last season despite joining a crowded receiving corps. He averaged 7.8 targets per game in the eight regular-season games he appeared in, and that includes three games where he played less than 50% of the offensive snaps. Brown turned those targets into production, finishing 45-483-4, or 11.8 fantasy points per game (half-PPR). He resigned with the Bucs and will now get a full season of production in a pass-happy offense led by Tom Brady.
Fantasy Downside
The obvious downside to Brown is his wildcard nature, which landed him with the Bucs in the first place. One wrong move and coach Bruce Arians has a short leash on the troubled receiver. Brown’s age (33) will also play a role as he’s facing the downturn of his career. Aside from that, Brown will be playing in a crowded offense featuring Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. The Bucs also added Giovani Bernard, who could eat into some of those short passes Brown was reliant on in 2020.
2021 Bottom Line
Brown averaged more targets per game (7.8) than Godwin (7.0) and Evans (6.8) last season, which shows he played a bigger role than some might have realized. While we like Evans and Godwin more, there isn’t as big of a separation between the three as their ADPs might suggest. But while Brown sees high volume, his yardage isn’t quite there as he averaged a career-low (outside of his rookie season) 10.7 yards per catch. Brown is a solid late-round pick up in half or full PPR formats.
Week 17 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Antonio Brown wasn't crazy productive last week (4-35-1), but he did score for the second consecutive week. Brown has been up-and-down with his production for Tampa Bay, but his best game of the season (93 yards) came against the Falcons — his opponent this week. We're not anticipating that kind of game again, but Brown is a promising WR3 play in Week 17 in a favorable matchup (No. 25 aFPA).
