Fantasy Upside
In his first season with the Raiders, Brown is clearly the team’s top receiver ahead of Tyrell Williams, J.J. Nelson, and rookie Hunter Renfrow. Last season, Jared Cook led the team with 101 targets and Jordy Nelson was second with 88 targets. Cook moved to New Orleans and Nelson retired. Brown should have a lot of opportunity because the Raiders lead the NFL in vacated targets, 359.
Fantasy Downside
Brown’s fantasy potential took a major hit when he moved from Pittsburgh to Oakland. Looking at last year alone shows a stark contrast between offensive schemes and overall production. Pittsburgh finished as the sixth-best team in points per game, 26.8, and Oakland finished as the fifth-worst team, 18.1 points per game. Pittsburgh had 713 passing attempts compared to Oakland’s 608 attempts. It doesn’t help Brown’s case that he downgraded from Ben Roethlisberger to Derek Carr.
Speaking of Carr, he might not have a lot of time to throw from the pocket. The offensive line ranked 26th in pass protection, per Football Outsiders, and they are projected to face the sixth most difficult pass rush schedule, per Warren Sharp. Carr averaged the least amount of time to throw in the NFL, 2.55 seconds per Next Gen Stats. It is also worth noting, Oakland will face the tenth most difficult wide receiver schedule, according to 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.
2019 Bottom Line
Brown is still a top tier route runner and should have plenty of opportunities but his fantasy floor is much lower with his new team. He can still finish as a top ten fantasy wide receiver but do not expect him to post WR1 numbers on a weekly basis like he did with the Steelers. Those days are behind him.
Week 17 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Some people had been questioning if Antonio Brown was losing a step. Then he went out and tortured Saints Pro Bowl corner Marshon Lattimore for 14 catches for 185 yards and two scores -- despite plenty of double teams. Brown leads the league with 15 touchdown catches and now has his league-record sixth straight 100-catch season. He's finishing strong and the Steelers need this game. He should light up the Bengals defense as a No. 1 receiver.
Week 16 at New Orleans Saints
Antonio Brown had four receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown last week against the Patriots, who were intent on not allowing him to have a big game. But that opened things up for a rushing attack the Steelers were only too happy to take advantage of. That won't happen against the Saints. Brown has scored in five of his seven road games this season despite putting up better catch and yardage rates at home. He's a solid WR1 play with his league-best 13 touchdown catches this season.
Week 15 vs. New England Patriots
Antonio Brown had just five catches for a season-low 35 yards last week at Oakland, but that was as much because Ben Roethlisberger missed a quarter and a half than anything. He has had plenty of big games against the Patriots in the past. New England has attempted to play him one-on-one with man defenses, which simply doesn't work. Brown should rebound nicely at home this week.
Week 14 at Oakland Raiders
Antonio Brown turned 13 targets into a 10-catch, 154-yard game with a touchdown, his 13th of the season. He's now gotten at least 13 targets in each of the past three games and faces a Raiders defense that has given up 29 touchdown passes this season. The Raiders also get no pressure on the quarterback, so Brown will have plenty of time to get open. He's a strong WR1 play this week.
Week 13 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Antonio Brown matches his season-high with nine receptions last week but they went for 67 yards as Denver was intent on not allowing him to get open downfield. Brown also had his consecutive games with a touchdown streak stopped at eight. The Chargers lead the league in defense against opposing No. 1 receivers at three catches for 45 yards, but have been burned by Tyreek Hill and Robert Woods for big games. Outside of that, they haven't faced anyone of Brown's talent. He should be fine as a WR1 play this week.
Week 12 at Denver Broncos
Antonio Brown had five catches for a season-high 117 yards and a touchdown last week, including a 78-yard catch-and-run. That touchdown gave him a score in eight consecutive games. We're still waiting for one of those signature double digit-catch games. It could happen this week. The Broncos have allowed 9.1 yards per pass play in their past three games. Brown is, as usual, a solid WR1 play this week.
Week 11 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Antonio Brown had six receptions for 96 yards and a score last week, his seventh consecutive game with a touchdown reception. The matchup with the Jaguars looks bad on paper, but in two meetings last season, Brown had 17 receptions for 280 yards and two touchdowns on 30 targets. He might not get 15 targets in this game, but he and Roethlisberger have been connecting more regularly after some early struggles. Brown is a WR1 play this week as usual.
Week 10 vs. Carolina Panthers
Antonio Brown caught just five of his 12 targets last week for 42 yards, but scored his league-best ninth receiving touchdown. It's hard to say a player on pace for more than 100 catches, 1,200 yards and 18 touchdowns can be better, but Brown certainly can be. Carolina has given up seven TDs to the receiver position, which isn't bad, but the Panthers have had issues handling receivers out of the slot. The Steelers will line Brown up everywhere and he'll get volume regardless of the matchup. Brown is a WR1 this week, as usual.
Week 9 at Baltimore Ravens
Antonio Brown's catch and yardage production isn't where it typically is, but he's made up for it by scoring eight times already. He had six catches for 74 yards last week, which seems to be about average production for him this season. He put up a 5-62-1 line against the Ravens earlier this season and has averaged six catches for 66 yards and a touchdown in his last five games in Baltimore. That's solid, if unspectacular production for Brown but he's still a WR1.
