Week 1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers have the sixth-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 25.75 points. We are projecting at least 22 touches for Melvin Gordon this week against the Chiefs. That doesn't leave enough meat on the bone for Ekeler, who scored fewer than seven PPR points in 10 games last season. He's not a starting consideration.
Fantasy Upside
This time last year, few people outside of Chargers scouts and coaches knew about Ekeler, an undrafted rookie out of tiny Western State in Colorado. Fast forward one year and the entire NFL knows his name. After an impressive showing in training camp and the preseason, Ekeler made the 53-man roster, eventually establishing himself as a key cog in the Bolts' offense as the team's primary complement to Melvin Gordon.
He was a solid change of pace when running the ball, but he truly established himself as a dangerous receiving option out of the backfield, hauling in 27 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns, including three receptions of at least 20 yards. Ekeler saw sporadic playing time over the first month of the season, which is why he failed to qualify among league leaders. If he had a few more plays under his belt, his 10.3 yards per catch would have ranked third among all running backs, sandwiched between Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara. Expect him to continue handling a similar role and workload this season but with a little less anonymity.
Fantasy Downside
Beyond best-ball leagues, it's going to be hard to count on consistent, high-end week-to-week production. In addition, rookie Justin Jackson figures to be the more likely candidate to take over the lead role should something happen to Melvin Gordon. Jackson is Rookie Scouting Portfolio author Matt Waldman's sleeper of the 2018 NFL Draft. According to Waldman, Jackson is an excellent running back who understands how to use his agility, acceleration, quickness, and leverage to set up blocks and work through and around contact. Waldman went on to suggest, "If he can shore up the tendency for focus drops and prove capable as a pass protector, Jackson could challenge Ekeler for the No. 2 role this year."
2018 Bottom Line
While Jackson has potential, we know what the coaching staff is willing to ask of Ekeler and there is some stand-alone value along the lines of other receiving specialist/satellite backs. Easily overlooked by less-informed league mates, drafting Ekeler as we have him ranked should provide you with solid value.
Week 15 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers are red hot and go into Kansas City in a game Saturday that will greatly decide the division race. The Chiefs are ranked just 19th in aFPA to RBs this season, but Ekeler is only the RB39 over the past month. He just isn't receiving enough touches. He's nothing more than a Melvin Gordon handcuff and should not be in your fantasy lineups.
Week 14 vs. Washington Redskins
The Chargers have the second-highest implied team total this weekend in Vegas at 26.25 points, and Washington is only 25th in aFPA to running backs this season. Washington has also allowed the third-most rushing yards over the past four weeks and fourth-most red zone touches to RBs in that span. However, these are Ekeler's touches since the bye week: 15, 8, 9, 6. The matchup is good, but you'll need extremely good efficiency from Ekeler given those touch counts. He's an extremely risky FLEX play in PPR leagues and should be avoided in standard leagues.
Week 13 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Chargers are surging with 82 points in their last two games, and now they get a revenge game against the lowly Browns, as the Chargers were the only team Cleveland beat last year. The Chargers have the highest implied team total of the week at 28.75 points. The Browns are ranked 16th in aFPA versus RBs this season. Ekeler has three straight weeks of double-digit PPR points. He's a viable FLEX option in Week 13.
Week 12 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys present a plus matchup on Thanksgiving, as Dallas is just 23rd in overall fantasy points allowed to the position and 25th in aFPA against running backs. It's easy to look at Austin Ekeler's production the past two weeks and get excited, but context matters. Most of his points came in the second half of a huge blowout last week. For that reason, we are not buying him as an RB2 in Week 12, but he's definitely worth a roster spot at this point, especially as a handcuff to Melvin Gordon.
Week 11 vs. Buffalo Bills
This week is a big spot for the Chargers ground game against a Bills defense ranked 31st in our aFPA vs. RB rankings and that has allowed more than 500 scrimmage yards in its past two games. Overall, the Bills have allowed the second-most PPR points to the position. Austin Ekeler, all of a sudden, has approached FLEX territory after the Chargers committed 15 touches to him last week—which he converted into 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. Given the matchup, you could do worse than Ekeler if you need FLEX help this week. If he's still available, Melvin Gordon owners must handcuff him with Ekeler.
