Week 7 at Kansas City Chiefs
Austin Ekeler was not able to immediately revert to the form his fantasy managers know and love in Week 6, his first action since the opening game of the season. Ekeler managed 62 yards from scrimmage on 14 attempts and four receptions, giving him 8.2 Half-PPR points. Ekeler finished as the RB26 on his return to the field.
He'll look to get back on track against the Chiefs in Week 7, but it will not be easy against this Chiefs defense. They rank fourth in aFPA to running backs this season, and 22nd in receptions allowed to tailbacks, which is where Ekeler really makes his money. It is still safe to project good things for Ekeler, and we should not be afraid to view him as an elite RB1 option this week.
Week 6 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Austin Ekeler hasn't played since Week 1, but he was hot when he was on the field. Ekeler rushed 16 times for 117 yards and a touchdown, adding another 47 yards on four receptions. He finished the game with 24.4 Half-PPR points.
Ekeler is set to return to the Chargers lineup against the Cowboys in Week 6. The Cowboys haven't been the friendliest matchup for running backs so far in 2023, with the team ranking 11th in aFPA to the position. Still, assuming Ekeler sees something approaching his normal workload, he has one of the safest roles to project in all of fantasy sports. He should be viewed as a high, HIGH-end RB1 in Week 6.
Week 2 at Tennessee Titans
Austin Ekeler was a fantasy force to be reckoned with in Week 1. In other breaking news, water is wet. Ekeler rushed 16 times for 117 yards and a touchdown while adding another 47 yards on four receptions. Ekeler managed 24.4 Half PPR points and trailed only Aaron Jones among fantasy RBs in Week 1. Worryingly, he was unable to finish the game due to an ankle injury. At the time of writing, his status for Week 2 is unknown.
If he is able to go and is healthy, then Ekeler remains an elite fantasy option, despite the Titans presenting one of the tougher matchups for fantasy running backs this week. He should be considered a mid-tier RB1, but his status should be watched carefully.
Week 1 vs Miami Dolphins
If only everything in life were as reliable as the fantasy output of Austin Ekeler. Ekeler rushed for a career-high 915 yards in 2022, scoring 13 touchdowns along the way, giving him 25 rushing scores in two seasons. Not content with this, Ekeler also set a new high with 107 receptions, which saw him gain another 722 yards and five additional scores. Ekeler was the RB1 in Half-PPR formats, averaging a whopping 19.5 fantasy points per game.
The Chargers will be looking to pass the ball downfield a bit more under Kellen Moore than they did last season, which will no doubt impact Ekeler from a receptions point of view. But he remains the lead back on this team and is likely to lead the way when it comes to goal-line work. The Dolphins are not a daunting prospect, especially as they ranked 20th in aFPA to running backs a season ago, and Ekeler is as close to an ideal RB1 projection as we are likely to get these days. If he's on your roster, he's in your lineup.
Fantasy Upside
Austin Ekeler wanted to be paid like one of the best running backs in the league. At $6.125 million per year, he wasn't close to the top 10. Ekeler requested a trade in March, but come May he agreed to a revised contract that added $1.75 million in incentives for 2023, the final season of his current deal. With his contract status settled for the short term, Ekeler brings the Chargers (and fantasy managers) high-end value as a dual-threat back that few players not named McCaffrey can touch. He's a PPR godsend; his career-high 107 receptions tied CeeDee Lamb for fifth among all players in 2022. Even if you don't expect him to crack 100 ever again, he's averaged a little more than 80 catches per year in his four seasons as the Chargers' featured back (2019-22). Ekeler accounted for more than a quarter of the team's yards from scrimmage last year, so Los Angeles would have a terrible time trying to replace that production, now or later. There's no need to worry about Joshua Kelley or Isaiah Spiller taking away too many of Ekeler's carries.
Fantasy Downside
Ekeler has more touchdowns than any other player in the NFL over the last two seasons. Regression is coming. Of course, it should have come last year. Still, he scored 18 total TDs after finding the end zone 20 times in 2021.
2023 Bottom Line
As 4for4's John Paulsen reminds readers, Ekeler was the fantasy RB1 last year after finishing as the RB2 in 2021, gaining a total of 3,195 yards with the aforementioned 38 touchdowns in the process. We should see more of the same from Ekeler in 2023. It not hard to make the argument for him being our top running back this year.
Week 17 vs Los Angeles Rams
If there's been a Y in the day this season, then the chances are Austin Ekeler has delivered the goods for his fantasy managers. Week 16 was no exception. Ekeler carried the ball 18 times for 67 yards and two rushing touchdowns, giving him four scores in his last three games and 11 on the ground for the year. Ekeler caught all four of his targets, but these only earned him 12 yards. Ekeler's 99 receptions in 2020 have earned him the same number of yards (647) as 70 grabs got him last year. Still, he put up RB4 overall numbers with 21.9 Half PPR points.
It would take either a fool or a hero, or both, to project Ekeler to not be among fantasy football's highest scorers on a given week, and Week 17 is no exception. The Rams rank 22nd in aFPA to running backs and have allowed the 10th most receiving yards to tailbacks in 2022. Ekeler should be able to post RB1 numbers for the fantasy managers he has helped propel into Fantasy Championship week.
Week 16 at Indianapolis Colts
Austin Ekeler had an eventful game against the Titans in Week 15. He carried the ball 12 times for 58 yards, only the second time he's eclipsed the half-century mark since Week 5. Ekeler also tied a season-low with two receptions for 12 yards, the fewest yards he's gained through the air in any game this season. Ekeler did seem to suffer an injury during the game, but he was able to return and gut it out. Ekeler notched up 14.0 Half PPR points and finished the week as the RB17.
Ekeler had a scan that revealed no issues early this week, so we can assume he will see his full workload against the Colts. His volume has masked a slight dip in efficiency this season, with Ekeler averaging a career-low 5.1 yards per touch. The Colts rank 27th in aFPA to running backs this season and have allowed the sixth most receptions to tailbacks in the entire league. Ekeler projects as a high-end RB1 this week.
Week 15 vs. Tennessee Titans
Austin Ekeler did Austin Ekeler things against the Dolphins in Week 14. He rushed 15 times for 45 yards and his eighth rushing score of the season, while also catching all eight of his targets for 59 yards. Ekeler amassed 20.4 Half PPR points and finished last week as the RB4. With four games to go, Ekeler is on pace to break the single-season record for running back receptions, with a career-high 93 already in the bank.
On paper, the Titans are a tough matchup for Ekeler, ranking as they do fourth in aFPA to running backs. However, only the Chiefs have allowed more running back receptions than the Titans this season, and with Ekeler always a threat to catch the ball there is little fear in projecting him to be an RB1 this week.
Week 14 vs Miami Dolphins
Austin Ekeler endured a pretty rough game against the Raiders in Week 13. He carried the ball ten times for 35 yards, the ninth time this season he's been held under 50 yards, and caught five passes for 67 yards. Ekeler was held without a touchdown for just the second time since Week 4. He managed 10.7 Half PPR points on his way to RB24 for the week.
Ekeler will look to bounce back against the Miami Dolphins in Week 14. The Dolphins have allowed the 11th most receptions to running backs this season while giving up four receiving touchdowns to boot, ranking 18th in aFPA to running backs thanks to only surrendering the fourth-fewest rushing yards. It'll be tough, but only a hero would project Ekeler to finish outside of the top 12 at his position two weeks in a row.
Week 13 at Las Vegas Raiders
It's getting almost ridiculous now when it comes to Austin Ekeler's passing game role. The Chargers RUNNING BACK rushed just four times for 20 yards against the Cardinals, but he saw a whopping 15 targets. He caught 11 for 60 yards and a touchdown, giving him 12 total scores this season. Ekeler posted 19.5 Half PPR points on his way to the overall RB4 last week.
It's hard to imagine Ekeler not producing for his fantasy managers again in Week 13. The Raiders rank 29th in aFPA to running backs, with no team allowing more receiving yards to backs all season than the Raiders. Ekeler is a set-and-forget RB1. No need to overthink things.
