Week 16 vs Denver
Ekeler had a disappointing game last week against the Las Vegas Raiders as he carried the ball 13 times for 60 yards and caught all four of his targets for 19 yards. It was not until shortly before kickoff that reports revealed Ekeler wasn’t at 100% and much like Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, he would also be on a pitch count. Ekeler still saw a 63% snap share, however, he did surrender 37% of the touches to a combination of Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley.
With 10 days to get close to full health, Ekeler is poised to rebound against the Denver Broncos who rank 30th in aFPA to RBs this season. Denver is fresh off giving up 149 total rushing yards on 7.1 yards per carry to a combination of Buffalo’s Devin Singletary and Zach Moss, so Ekeler is primed for a huge game. Count on a healthy Ekeler to have an elite RB1 game in a clutch championship game performance.
Week 15 at Las Vegas
Ekeler bounced back nicely last week against the Atlanta Falcons, as he carried the ball 15 times for 79 yards and caught all nine of his targets for 67 yards. The LA offense went through Ekeler as he led the team in carries and tied Keenan Allen in receptions. Ekeler once again dominated the touches in the backfield as he saw a 60% snap share.
Week 15 brings on the Las Vegas Raiders who rank 28th in aFPA to RBs this season. The Raiders just gave up a career game to Indy’s Jonathan Taylor (20-150-2) and have also given up 557 receiving yards to RBs this season (7th most). On a short week with a new defensive coordinator, there is little reason to think this defense is even remotely capable of containing Ekeler. With 34 targets in the three games since he has been back, Ekeler has seen a ton of work and should be expected to see plenty more in this matchup. Fire up Ekeler as an elite RB1 option, especially in PPR leagues.
Week 14 vs Atlanta
Ekeler was bottled up by the New England Patriot defense last week as he carried the ball eight times for 36 yards and caught 4-of-9 targets for 32 yards. The Chargers were crushed 45-0 so there were not many opportunities to run the ball, however, inept playcalling limited what should have been an otherwise successful afternoon for Ekeler. Even though he did not produce to expectations, fantasy managers should take solace in knowing he once again led the backfield in touches and snaps as there should be no doubt moving forward that he is this team’s top back.
Now even though Ekeler faces the Atlanta Falcons this week who are ranked second in aFPA to RBs this season, that does not mean he has a particularly difficult matchup. In Ekeler’s case, fantasy managers should be delighted to know Atlanta has given up 63 receptions for 431 yards to RBs this season and have surrendered four receiving touchdowns, 5th most in the league. In what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the week, expect a full workload for Ekeler who is sure to deliver high-end RB1 numbers in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
Week 13 vs New England
Austin Ekeler has returned to save your fantasy season! In his first game back in almost two months, Ekeler returned to his biggest workload of the yearas he ran the ball 14 times for 44 yards and saw a ridiculous 16 targets for 11 receptions and 85 yards. This was the Ekeler we hoped to see in the offseason and the one we saw glimpses of prior to his hamstring injury. Ekeler did not suffer any setbacks and looked as explosive as ever, but most importantly, he established a workhorse role as he out-touched Joshua Kelley 25 to 7.
Ekeler has a great matchup in Week 13 against the New England Patriots who rank 23rd in aFPA to RBs this season. After weeks of plug and play RBs who proved to be serviceable to an extent, the Charger offense now has one of the truly elite pass-catching backs in the NFL. The talent discrepancy between Ekeler and the rest of the LA backfield is clear on tape and in the stat sheet. Ekeler is a high-end RB1 this week and he might just end up being 2020’s League Winner for fantasy managers who were able to successfully maneuver through the past two months.
Week 4 at Tampa Bay
He is alive! The dynamic PPR back we have known Ekeler to be finally showed up last week against Carolina as he caught all his 11 targets for 84 yards and added 59 rushing yards and one touchdown. Ekeler had a strong rushing performance as he has had all season, however, is contribution in the passing game made him third-highest scoring back in PPR leagues in Week 3.
Ekeler’s Week 4 matchup presents different challenges as Tampa Bay has given up the tenth-least fantasy points to RBs this season. Regardless of much, it is evident that with Justin Herbert under center, Ekeler will continue to see a healthy dose of targets put of the backfield which will keep him firmly in the RB1 against the Bucs.
Week 3 vs. Carolina
Two things are coming into focus after Week 2: Ekeler is in a 50-50 timeshare with Joshua Kelley in the backfield and Justin Herbert becoming the starter was the best-case scenario for Ekeler. After only seeing one target in Week 1, Ekeler received four targets in Week 2 which he turned into four receptions for 44 yards. He also ran the ball 16 times for 93 yards, more efficient than Kelley’s 23 carries for 64 yards. Ekeler has proven to be a more effective and diverse runner in this backfield, however Kelley’s presence limits Ekeler’s work and touchdown upside.
Carolina has given up the most points to RBs this season, including a three-touchdown game to Josh Jacobs in Week 1. Ekeler should still be viewed as a RB1 in this one and only time will tell is Herbert’s presence will continue to help Ekeler.
Week 2 vs. Kansas City
We’ve seen what the Charger offense looks like post-Phillip Rivers and…it’s not good. From a rushing perspective, Ekeler had a good game running the ball 19 times for 84 yards, however, that is all he produced. He only got one target in the passing game and the offense looked abysmal. To make matters worse, rookie Joshua Kelley ran the ball 12 times for 60 yards and picked up the only touchdown for Los Angeles. No matter what Ekeler does on the ground, the reason for his effectiveness last season came in the passing game, and he needs to be a main fixture of the passing attack or else his fantasy value as well as the LA offense will tank.
We expect more usage from Ekeler against Kansas City this week who gave up 109 total yards and one touchdown to David Johnson in the season opener. Ekeler should tentatively be viewed as a fringe RB1/high-end RB2 in all leagues until it becomes clear what this Charger offense will be.
Week 1 vs. Cincinnati
Ekeler had one of the most memorable four-week stretches in fantasy football in the beginning of last season as he averaged almost 27 points a game. That was without Melvin Gordon, a situation he finds himself in yet again—however he does have rookie Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson waiting in the wings for short yardage work. Regardless of the situation, Ekeler should operate as a focal point of this Chargers’ offense and should added pass-catching work out of the slot as WR Mike Williams is set to miss time due to injury. Ekeler should be viewed as a high-end RB2 in standard leagues and should be a solid RB1 in PPR leagues for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Austin Ekeler agreed to a four-year, $24.5 million deal with the Chargers early this offseason. Of course, as ESPN.com suggested, by letting Melvin Gordon walk, the Chargers had already committed to Ekeler, who emerged as a key contributor over the past two seasons -- even if he's not used in a traditional featured role. In case you missed it, in 2019 Ekeler ran 132 times and caught 92 passes while notching 11 overall touchdowns. Among all running backs last season, Ekeler finished at the top in receiving TDs (eight) and second in receptions. Beyond that, he led all NFL players in catches without a drop (92); his 993 yards receiving were 12th most ever by a running back; he had 10 games with five-plus catches, and was one of five running backs with 1,500-plus total yards and 10-plus total TDs. HC Anthony Lynn wants Ekeler to get 15 to 20 touches a game, a trend that should continue in 2020.
Fantasy Downside
Ekeler has yet to prove himself capable of handling a front-line role and may not be asked to this year either with rookie Joshua Kelley and holdover Justin Jackson standing by to handle early-down and between-the-tackles work as needed. In addition, the departure of Philip Rivers, who clearly locked in on Ekeler regularly last year, opens the door to concerns about this year's QB, whether it's Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert, having the same locked-in connection that Ekeler enjoyed with Rivers.
2020 Bottom Line
Whatever the case, Ekeler finished fourth in fantasy points at the position last season. That's impressive. In fact, Ekeler averaged nearly 27 fantasy points a game over the first four weeks of the season and he finished with six top-5 performances -- tied for third-most in the league among running backs. And, as NFL.com noted, his seven 20-plus point games tied for second with Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry. These numbers will lead some to overpay; you should not be among them. Instead, viewing Ekeler as a very high-end RB2 seems like a wise course of action for us.
Week 17 at Kansas City Chiefs
In Week 16, Melvin Gordon out-snapped Austin Ekeler 37 to 33 and out-touched Ekeler 15 to 9. Ekeler had four rushing attempts for 11 yards, five receptions for 58 yards, and was the half PPR RB28. Gordon finished as the half PPR RB8 while Ekeler finished as the half PPR RB28 because Gordon scored two 1-yard touchdowns.
The Chargers have been out of the playoff picture for quite some time. However, at the time of writing this, the Chargers are likely to play their starters because this could be Rivers’ last game as a Charger.
The blueprint to beating Kansas City is attacking them on the ground. Kansas City is the eleventh worst defense against running backs but the third-best defense against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Ekeler ranked as a mid-range half PPR RB2. Ekeler and Gordon have been back-to-back in rankings several times this season, but Ekeler is a couple of spots behind Gordon this week.
