Week 12 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Chargers have an implied team total of 28 points, an attractive projection. This is also a run funnel defense that the Chargers will face, increasing the likelihood of Austin Ekeler having enough positive game script to challenge for FLEX worthy numbers. That depends on touches though, as he had more touches last week than his previous two games behind. If Ekeler can reach his season average of eight touches per game, he will be on the FLEX radar for Week 12 with a decent chance at a touchdown. However, Ekeler's volume volatility always makes him a bust candidate.
Week 11 vs. Denver Broncos
Fantasy owners should expect a run-heavy attack this week for the Chargers. Denver is eighth in aFPA to QBs this season but just 18th in aFPA to RBs. With a large implied team total of 26.75, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler are set up for high-efficiency production. We expect more volume than the seven combined touches Ekeler has in his last two games, but he's still a highly volatile FLEX option in Week 11 due to the uncertainty of his role, but he has a history of highly efficient production in past weeks this year and plus match-up.
Week 10 at Oakland Raiders
Austin Ekeler is averaging 9.5 touches per game for 11.65 PPR points per game, but it's a boom or bust situation each week for Ekeler. An argument can be made to start Ekeler at FLEX this week, but it's hard to predict when Ekeler will get double-digit touches and when he'll have weeks like last week, when he had just four touches. Oakland ranks just 25th in aFPA to RBs, and Los Angeles has an implied team total that's third highest on the Sunday slate. Positive game script and a big lead could lend itself to more Ekeler work late, but his volume is always a high-risk/high-reward proposition.
Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough match-up for Austin Ekeler. Seattle is top-10 in aFPA to RBs. He's relied on efficiency this season when Melvin Gordon has been active. In his last four games with Gordon on the field, Ekeler has seen touch counts of seven, 10, seven and seven. That requires him to be hyper-efficient to produce in fantasy lineups and likely a need to find the end zone. It's a heavy bye week so teams may not have a better option, but know the match-up is difficult and volume makes him a high-risk FLEX option.
Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans (London)
The Chargers are favored with an implied team total of 26 points, foreshadowing what should be a positive game script for the Chargers rushing attack. However, last week showed the risks that come with starting Ekeler as a FLEX. His efficiency didn't change, but he didn't add anything in the passing game and didn't score, making for just a six-point week. Those risks are there again, as you are asking for hyper-efficiency from a satellite back averaging about seven carries per game and two receptions.
Week 6 at Cleveland Browns
The Chargers have a below average implied team total this week in Cleveland, facing a rebuilt Browns defense that has forced 11 turnovers in three home games this year. However, this defense is closer to a run funnel defense, as it ranks much higher in aFPA to QBs than RBs. Austin Ekeler is on pace for 1,300 total yards on just 154 touches (less than ten touches per game). His efficiency has been incredible, but we have to expect that to come down a bit at some point, especially a yards per reception close to 15 out of the backfield. He's a high upside FLEX each week but also one with a low floor. As long as Melvin Gordon is healthy, that will continue to be the case for Ekeler.
Week 5 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers have the third-highest implied team total in Week 5 at 28.75 points. Oakland is just 19th in aFPA to RBs this season. Ekeler has been a plus satellite back for PPR league this season, with no worse than eight PPR points in any week and double-digits in three of four weeks. His 3.5 receptions per game and second-most red zone receptions on the team (3) keep him on the FLEX radar for Week 5.
Week 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Austin Ekeler is averaging 98 total yards per game on less than 11 touches per game. He's looking more and more like the Chris Thompson of the AFC or the new Danny Woodhead for the Bolts. The 49ers rank just 26th in aFPA to RBs. Only the Chiefs have a higher implied team total this week, with the Chargers expected to score 28.5 points. His passing game usage puts him in weekly high-risk/high-reward flex consideration.
Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Proceed cautiously with the Chargers offense this week, despite the fact that they lit up the Chiefs and Bills in the first two weeks of the season. The Rams defense is most certainly not the Chiefs or Bills. A low implied team total of 20.5 points is also cause for concern. The strong D-Line held David Johnson in check last week, and last year's aFPA versus RBs of 32nd is largely irrelevant because of the improvements in the offseason to this unit. Ekeler has been a pleasant fantasy surprise for the Chargers, though, averaging double-digit touches per game and double-digit fantasy points. With Hunter Henry out for the year, it seems some of his targets are going to the RBs. Ekeler must stay extremely efficient though to maintain flex status in Week 3. You're gambling on low volume in a tough matchup.
Week 2 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills lost 47-3 to the Ravens last week. Sooooooo, yeah. Start your Chargers. What's most encouraging about Austin Ekeler's stat line last week was getting 10 touches, including catching all five targets, while playing less than 30 percent of snaps. That shows the coaching staff wants to get him involved when he's on the field. This could turn into a blowout for the Bills again, who allowed three touchdowns to Ravens RBs last week and were only 24th in aFPA to RBs last year. Ekeler could be a FLEX consideration in deeper leagues this week and an extremely valuable handcuff for Melvin Gordon owners.
