Evaluating NFL and Fantasy League Trades

Jul 06, 2010

Greg Alan, 4for4 Founder

I'd like to share one of my favorite analysis charts. It's called the Player Potential Grid.

Over the years I've found it to be a rather handy reference guide. I really like this chart because it was designed to incorporate several intellectual properties. It mirrors a number of principles I've often heard cited by NFL coaches and GMs.

Perhaps most exciting, when you leverage the grid with artful planning, it has a variety of applications.

It can help you...

- evaluate NFL trades that include draft picks over one or multiple years

- evaluate your own league's keeper trades

- quantify, estimate and compare keeper league potential value

- improve your keeper rankings

- examine trades in redraft leagues

The grid is big. It covers 125 player rankings (draft picks) and it offers a three-year outlook as well.

After the grid below, I'll go over a few examples on how it can be put into action. In addition, I'll highlight one of its best properties.

Round 1	This Year	Next Year	In Two Years
1	1200	600	300
2	1100	500	225
3	1050	400	205
4	1000	350	200
5	900	300	192
6	800	270	188
7	750	260	183
8	700	255	179
9	650	248	174
10	625	240	168
11	600	233	164
12	575	225	158
13	550	215	153
14	525	205	148
15	500	200	143
16	475	195	138
17	450	191	133
18	425	189	128
19	410	187	125
20	400	185	120
21	381	183	116
22	372	180	113
23	360	179	110
24	350	174	108
25	330	168	105
26	320	164	103
27	310	158	100
28	300	153	98
29	290	148	97
30	285	143	93
31	280	138	90
32	275	133	88
Round 2	This Year	Next Year	In Two Years
33	270	128	85
34	260	125	83
35	255	120	80
36	250	116	79
37	244	113	77
38	240	110	75
39	235	108	73
40	230	105	71
41	224	103	70
42	221	100	68
43	215	98	65
44	210	97	63
45	204	93	60
46	200	90	58
47	192	88	55
48	188	85	53
49	183	83	50
50	179	80	48
51	174	79	47
52	168	77	46
53	164	75	45
54	158	73	44
55	153	71	43
56	148	70	41
57	143	68	40
58	138	65	39
59	133	63	37
60	128	60	35
61	125	58	34
62	120	55	33
63	116	53	32
64	113	50	31
Round 3	This Year	Next Year	In Two Years
65	110	48	30
66	108	47	30
67	105	46	29
68	103	45	29
69	100	44	28
70	98	43	27
71	95	41	26
72	93	40	26
73	90	39	25
74	88	37	25
75	85	35	25
76	83	34	24
77	80	33	24
78	79	32	24
79	77	31	23
80	75	30	23
81	73	30	23
82	71	29	23
83	70	29	23
84	68	28	22
85	65	27	22
86	63	26	20
87	60	26	20
88	58	25	18
89	55	25	18
90	53	25	16
91	50	24	16
92	48	24	14
93	47	24	14
94	46	23	13
95	45	23	13
96	44	23	13
Round 4	This Year	Next Year	In Two Years
97	43	23	12
98	41	23	12
99	40	22	12
100	39	22	11
101	37	20	11
102	35	20	10
103	34	18	10
104	33	18	10
105	32	16	9
106	31	16	9
107	30	14	9
108	30	14	9
109	29	13	8
110	29	13	8
111	28	13	8
112	27	12	7
113	26	12	7
114	26	12	7
115	25	11	7
116	25	11	6
117	25	10	6
118	24	10	6
119	24	10	6
120	24	9	5
121	23	9	5
122	23	9	5
123	23	9	5
124	23	8	5
125	23	8	4

1) A Basic NFL Application

The team with the #2 overall pick this year gets an offer from the NFL team selecting 11th. They offer their 1st round pick (11th overall) and their 2nd round pick (43rd overall) for the #2 pick. Should the team with the #2 pick do it?

Consulting the grid shows the #2 pick is worth 1100 points. The 11th pick is worth 600 and the 43rd pick is worth 215 points. Since 1100 > 600 + 215, all else being equal, the team with the #2 pick should not trade down.

2) How the Pros Do It

Jimmy Johnson was a magician on NFL draft day. He worked draft trades in record time and they almost always went his way. After he left the NFL, Johnson shared one of his favorite rules: a 2nd round draft pick this year has about the same value as a 1st round pick selected next season. In general, Jimmy was saying delaying a pick by a year is equal to moving up 32 picks the following season.

Consulting the chart shows Jimmy is spot on!

Example: A middle 2nd round pick this year (48th pick overall) has a value of 188. A middle 1st round pick next season is very similar. It has a value of 195. So, according to the chart, Jimmy was able to spot a fair trade in seconds just by following his rule of thumb.

Next, lets use the chart to evaluate your fantasy situation using existing NFL players.

3) Should You Pull the Trigger?

Should you trade a fantasy stud with a limited career to get a much younger player who looks to be on the rise?

For arguments sake, say you think RB X will be the 20th best fantasy weapon this season. However, you also think he's going to wind down, get hurt and/or perhaps even retire after this season.

On the other side, say you think young upstart QB Y will be the 100th best fantasy weapon this season. But, you believe the youngster will become the 50th best player in next season and the 25th best fantasy player two years from now.

Everything else being equal, should you trade RB X before the start of this season for QB Y -- given the above assumptions?

Some of you are saying, 'DO IT!' others, 'NO WAY!'

Regardless of your opinion, how are you forming it?

Let's just assume we all agree on the above RB X/QB Y assumptions (and I realize some of you don't).

The real question is: Should you do the trade if you believe those assumptions?

Time to consult the Player Potential Grid.

The chart shows it's actually better to keep RB X under those assumptions. Doing the math, it breaks down like this:

RB X = 400+0+0 = 400

QB Y = 39 + 80 + 105 = 224

RB X > QB Y (so keep RB X)

Clearly, only time will tell if this holds true. But in any case, I often find it comforting to consult an objective method.

Moral of the Story: It's great to win down the road, but let's be real. NFL teams and fantasy owners alike prefer to win now, not later.

Evaluating NFL and Fantasy League Trades

BETSPERTS MEDIA & TECHNOLOGY GROUP