The Impact of Changing Teams on WR Production

But what about the guy that Meachem is replacing -- Vincent Jackson? He joins a Tampa Bay team that doesn't have as potent of an offense as the Chargers do, and he'll also see a downgrade at quarterback from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman. His production is not very likely to go up, but just how far will it drop?

To answer this question, I compiled data from 1990 to 2011, parsing out those wide receivers who changed teams after finishing in the top 36 in the previous season. I did this as part of a larger age study, so I also have subsets by age.

The table below shows the net difference from a total fantasy points standpoint and also from a fantasy points per game standpoint. It's important to note that, as a group, WRs who finished in the top 36 had a few things break their way. They will naturally score less (as a group) due to injury, TD regression and the progression of other players, which is why all the numbers are negative. It's important not only to look at those wide receivers who changed teams, but also those players who stayed with the same team so we can make a relative comparison.

	Same Team							Changing Teams
Age	#	Net Diff	Total FP	% Change	FP/G Y1	FP/G Y2	% Change	#	Net Diff	Total FP	% Change	FP/G Y1	FP/G Y2	% Change
25	61	-1157	8425	-14%	9.1	8.2	-10%	4	-252	448	-56%	7.1	5.7	-20%
26	74	-1561	11034	-14%	9.4	8.6	-8%	9	-169	1200	-14%	8.5	7.8	-8%
27	80	-2442	11774	-21%	9.5	8.3	-12%	13	-511	1653	-31%	8.6	6.3	-27%
28	72	-2048	10984	-19%	9.6	8.0	-16%	9	-370	1203	-31%	8.8	6.3	-29%
29	59	-814	9086	-9%	9.5	8.9	-7%	6	-294	810	-36%	8.8	6.0	-32%
30	63	-1506	9774	-15%	9.7	8.6	-11%	9	-453	1221	-37%	8.6	6.8	-21%
31	40	-1279	6837	-19%	9.9	8.7	-12%	11	-537	1464	-37%	8.5	5.9	-31%
32	37	-823	5723	-14%	9.5	8.5	-11%	10	-722	1431	-50%	9.2	5.0	-46%
33	20	-857	3332	-26%	10.0	8.3	-16%	7	-128	879	-15%	9.2	6.9	-25%
34	12	-201	2332	-9%	9.8	9.2	-6%	6	-252	792	-32%	8.3	7.2	-14%
Total	518	-12688	79302	-16%	9.5	8.5	-11%	84	-3687	11101	-33%	8.7	6.4	-27%

The columns are fairly self-explanatory, but "Net Diff" might be a bit confusing. It is simply the sum of the change in fantasy points year-over-year for players in that age group. "Total FP" is the sum of all fantasy points from the previous season for players in that age group, so "Net Diff" divided by "Total FP" gives us the total percentage drop ("% Change").

On the whole, receivers who stayed with the same team saw their total fantasy points drop by 16%. Those wide receivers who changed teams saw their fantasy points drop by 33%, so there's a relative difference of 17%.

It's also interesting to look at the numbers on a per game basis (FP/G). The receivers that stayed on the same team saw their points per game drop by 1.0 points (or 11%). Meanwhile, those wide receivers that changed teams saw their points per game drop by 1.7 points (or 27%). That’s a relative difference of 16%. Whether we're looking at total fantasy points or per game averages, the relative drop is about the same.

So in this case the conventional wisdom holds -- unless they're going to see an increase in targets or more efficient quarterback play, receivers who change teams are a lot more likely to see a drop in production than their counterparts who stay put.

But back to Vincent Jackson… He may very well outproduce his 2011 numbers, which made him the #10 WR on the year. But he's more likely to regress, and at a rate that's higher than those players who stayed with the same team. A 33% drop would put his total fantasy points at about 114 for the season. Those were WR31 numbers in 2011. If we assume that he bucks the trend of naturally regressing as a top 36 receiver and only suffers a drop due to his change in scenery, that would put him at around 143. We currently project him to score 151 points, and given the relative depth at receiver, it makes him our #25 WR.