Sleeper Alert: Josh Freeman

There's no doubt about it -- QB is deep this year. There are no fewer than 12 solid-to-great starters, and provided they can all stay healthy through training camp, most fantasy owners shouldn't have a problem getting a Tony Romo-type talent in the middle rounds on draft day.

But for those owners who are Romo-adverse, or those that are in leagues with 14 or more teams, finding a good starting QB at a discount can be kind of a chore. One option is to follow C.D. Carter's QBBWW (Quarterback By Waiver Wire) strategy, but as the number of teams (or number of roster spots) increases, it can become difficult to find good options on the waiver wire week-to-week.

I was in a 20-team league last year and drafted Josh Freeman as my starter. Things were great for the first 13 games:

To this point, Freeman had posted #11 QB numbers, and was ahead of Romo, Eli Manning and Russell Wilson in the QB standings. Prorating those averages to16 games would have yielded almost 4,000 yards and 31 TDs. He was heading into a great Week 15 matchup with the Saints and a decent matchup with the Rams in Week 16. This is what happened in the last three weeks:

He actually wasn't terrible in Week 17 -- the Bucs managed to beat the Falcons -- but given his eight interceptions in Week 15 and Week 16, he was on pace to throw 48 interceptions over a 16-game season based on this three-game average.

Freeman finished the 2012 season as the #13 fantasy QB, so why is he the #22 QB off the board in early drafts with a 14th round ADP?

His late-season performance justifiably angered HC Greg Schiano, who proceeded to send Freeman mixed signals throughout the offseason. This, along with the team's decision to draft Mike Glennon in the 3rd round of the draft, gives the impression that Freeman is on thin ice as the Buccaneers' starter.

But Schiano recently came out in support of Freeman while appearing on the NFL Network:

"I believe in competition, and Mike Glennon is going to be a tremendous quarterback in his time," Schiano said. "But we have a quarterback, it's Josh Freeman. He had a really good spring. I think it's really coming together, being in this system for a second year now and hearing the things over again after being able to study it, I'm really encouraged.

"I know Mike Sullivan, our offensive coordinator, he's encouraged. We're looking forward to big things. Josh is going to have a big year."

Bottom Line

Freeman is being drafted behind what I call "improved-environment" players like Sam Bradford, who has seen an influx of young (and unproven) talent in his receiving corps, along with Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers, who should benefit from the arrival of strong offensive minds Marc Trestman and Mike McCoy, respectively. (Though I'm not sure the argument holds for Rivers, who was playing for Norv Turner, another strong offensive mind.)

Meanwhile, Freeman is in the second year of Sullivan's system, throwing to the same players -- namely Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams -- as last season. He did lose TE Dallas Clark, though the team seems to be high on Luke Stocker as Clark's replacement. Kevin Ogletree is in at WR3 and Doug Martin is a capable receiver out of the backfield.

Over the past three seasons, Freeman has finished 7th, 16th and 13th in total QB points, so even with an influx of talent at the position, he's a good bet to finish higher than his 22nd ADP would indicate. He should make a fine QB2 (with upside), and while his schedule is mediocre, two of his first three games (NO, @NE) appear to be good matchups, so he's a good guy to target in a QBBWW or QBBC (Quarterback By Committee) strategy. Freeman's schedule meshes well with Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning and Alex Smith: