Stacking the Deck: FanDuel & DraftKings Stacks for Week 17

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More often than not, Week 17 is a week of chaos. The question is: how do we profit from uncertainty and a higher degree of variance when the chalk all goes to hell? For me, the answer is to scale back in cash games and to play a higher volume of GPPs than normal. Along with some teams having more to play for than others, it is a week where the top receivers all seem to be in good spots. Normally in tournaments this would be where we would turn to ownership percentages from the Thursday slate to help make our decisions on who are the best tournament plays. Unfortunately, we don’t have that luxury this week as the full 16 game slate will occur on Sunday in Week 17. To diversify yourself, this week more than others you should rely on unique lineup construction, which is why I will be including more three man and game correlation stacks than usual in this week’s column. It’s Week 17. Don’t be content cashing in your GPP; shoot to take whole the thing down.

Below are my favorite stacks and situations to exploit in Week 17.

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Two Man Stack

Ben Roethlisberger ($8800 FD / $6900 DK) & Martavis Bryant ($7100 FD / $5300 DK) @ CLE

My lone two man stack of the week is Ben Roethlisberger and Martavis Bryant. This game has the highest point total of the week and will be lower owned than it should due to recency bias from the Steelers' dud last week against Baltimore. Roethlisberger admittedly has not been as dominant on the road as he has at home this year, but Cleveland comes in at 28th in QB aFPA and has given up the third highest touchdown rate in the league over the past four weeks. People will be off Bryant after his three-target, one-catch performance last week, but I believe it to be more of an outlier than sign of things to come. He is still averaging 9.5 targets in his past six games and will face off against a Browns secondary ranked 27th in WR aFPA. This was Bryant's first game all season with fewer than seven targets and he has not scored a touchdown in three straight games, which makes him a regression candidate. The Steelers' playoff hopes are in serious trouble, so this is a must-win game in Cleveland.

Three Man and Game Correlation Stacks

Eli Manning ($7500 FD / $5600 DK) & Odell Beckham Jr. ($8900 FD / $9000 DK) & Rashad Jennings ($5800 FD / $3700 DK) vs. PHI

The Giants offense was clearly not the same without Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 16. Eli Manning did not even complete his first pass until halfway through the second quarter. The bright spot for the Giants was surprisingly Rashad Jennings, who quietly has averaged 19 touches over the last three weeks and trails just two running backs in rushing yards over that time period. He has separated himself as the lead back in this offense who is a home favorite against a Philadelphia defense ranked 30th in RB aFPA. Jennings will give you diversity over a large number of people rostering just Beckham Jr. this week, who will be high owned for good reason. The pace of the Giants and Eagles game should be furious: the two teams pace the NFL in plays per game against and both teams are also among the top three in seconds between plays. There will be plenty of opportunities for points in a game that may be a bit overlooked with a game featuring Atlanta and New Orleans also on the slate. Then there is the obvious narrative of ODB coming off of suspension with something to prove. Manning is actually sixth in the NFL in TD rate in the red zone and the Eagles are 31st in the NFL in points allowed.

Sam Bradford ($6700 FD / $5300 DK) & Zach Ertz ($5700 FD / $3600 DK) & Odell Beckham Jr. ($8900 FD / $9000 DK) PHI @ NYG

We’re going to stick with the same game with our next three-man stack but will still be riding Odell Beckham Jr. This a week where correlation plays will be huge and this is a game where both teams will score a lot of points. Sam Bradford and Zach Ertz comprise our top two man stack according to our stack value reports, and I think they have to also be paired with ODB as a correlation play to raise your ceiling. We went over why Beckham is a great play this week, but you may be surprised to hear that Zach Ertz has 30 targets in the past two games and has either five catches or a touchdown in each of the last seven games that he finished. The Giants are 26th in TE aFPA. Ertz has seemingly become Bradford’s favorite target and the two nearly hooked up last week for 60-yard touchdown bomb in the second quarter, but Bradford overthrew Ertz. At $6,700 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings, Bradford has a ton of value, especially against a Giants defense that ranks 29th in QB aFPA.

Brian Hoyer ($6900 FD / $5100 DK) & DeAndre Hopkins ($9000 FD / $8400 DK) & Nate Washington ($5300 FD / $3600 DK) vs. JAC

The Jacksonville defense showed last week that they might actually be as bad as the New Orleans defense, giving up 400 yards and three touchdowns to a hobbled Drew Brees. The Jaguars are allowing the sixth most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the past four weeks. Although Hoyer may have to knock off some rust in this one, Houston has a lot on the line. They're trying to secure the AFC south title and will be playing their starters. Davon House will get another chance to cover DeAndre Hopkins after being sent to the bench in their last meeting back in Week 6. Hopkins dropped a 10-148-2 stat line on House in that game and all signs point towards another big game for DeAndre. Nate Washington was solid last week, getting into the end zone yet again with Cecil Shorts out. Washington now has four touchdowns in three games with Shorts absent. The Hoyer-Hopkins-Washington stack is our top three man stack on FanDuel and is in our top 10 on DraftKings as well, per the Stack Value Reports.

Drew Brees ($8400 FD / $6700 DK) & Julio Jones ($9300 FD / $8500 DK) & Devonta Freeman ($8800 FD / $7600 DK) NO @ ATL

If you weren’t scared off by Drew Brees's torn plantar fascia last week, you enjoyed his low ownership as he posted 412 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars. Both the Saints and Falcons have officially been eliminated from the playoff race, so Brees could be a candidate for an early hook. That being said, I’m willing to roll the dice on his touchdown upside and low ownership potential again in Week 17. Instead of paring him with his receiving options, I would much rather take advantage of the correlation play with Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman. The Brees-Jones-Freeman lineup construction should be unique and allows to you avoid Matt Ryan, whose upside is extremely limited: he is averaging just 1.26 touchdowns per game this year. Devonta Freeman is clearly in an elite position against a Saints defense that is ranked 31st in RB aFPA and that has given up the most touchdowns in the league. Even at $8,800 on FanDuel and $7,600 on DraftKings, Freeman is a top five option for value at the position according to our Value Reports for Week 17. He has accounted for a staggering 41% of the Falcons offensive touchdowns this year. Julio Jones is our top value at the wide receiver position this week and is just 17 receptions and 243 yards away from the single-season record. We’ve seen teams with nothing to play for go for these kinds of records; the #NarrativeStreet is in Jones’s favor against a horrible Saints defense.

Running Back/Defense Stack

Frank Gore ($6600 FD / $4000 DK) & Indianapolis Colts Defense ($4200 FD / $2400 DK) vs. TEN

This looks like a tough matchup for Frank Gore on paper, with the chaos surrounding the Colts' quarterback situation. I can definitely see a narrative where Tennessee dares Indianapolis to throw and keys in on Gore in the run game, but Gore did drop a 14-86-2 stat line on the Titans earlier this season. The Colts are in a must-win situation to have any hope of making the playoffs. Gore will undoubtedly leave it all on the field in this one against a Titans team fighting for the number-one pick in next year's draft. The Colts defense is one of the best plays on the board this week facing a Titans team ranked 31st in DEF aFPA. The Gore-Colts stack is our top RB/DEF stack on DraftKings and our third-ranked RB/DEF stack on FanDuel