Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 1 Targets

Sep 06, 2016

Welcome back to the wonderful world of streaming quarterbacks, and more importantly, welcome back to fantasy football! After many dark months, the game we love has returned.

Each week, I will offer three suggestions for those of you streaming the quarterback position. As always, we will rely on two stats with strong correlations to fantasy success: the opposing defense and the Vegas projections for the game (otherwise known as implied team totals). As the season progresses, we will begin to incorporate each QB’s points-per-game average, which correlates well with future weekly success.

For opposing defenses, we utilize Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed (aFPA). Note: 4for4’s 2016 aFPA data will first come out after we get three full weeks in the system. For the first three weeks, we are using last year’s data.

Week 1 QB Streaming Targets

Alex Smith (KC) vs. San Diego Chargers

Smith and the Chiefs are a seven-point home favorite against the Chargers, and they have a healthy 25.75 implied team total (meaning Vegas expects the team to score that many points against the Chargers). Smith comes across as a bland, boring QB option, but he has more upside than many realize. Smith finished as a top-12 QB in nearly one-third of his games last year, and he rarely finishes outside the top-20. The Chiefs’ quarterback adds rushing upside, and his RBs stay involved in the passing game, upping his passing totals. As for matchup, the Chargers were in the better half of QB matchups last season, allowing 16.4 aFPA to opposing quarterbacks.

In Week 1, where there are so many unknowns, I like rolling with an established QB whose team is a seven-point home favorite against a middling defense. Smith may not have as much upside as other options, but he is one of the safest streamers you can find this week.

Smith is available in 79% of Yahoo public leagues, and he is my optimal streaming QB of the week.