DFS Quarterback Analysis: Week 8

Oct 26, 2017

An in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the QBs on the Week 8 slate is provided below. Analysis includes how to approach each of the chalk options, as well as how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk

With six teams on bye and a London game in the mix, there aren’t as many options to choose from in Week 8. Our options are even more limited once you add in the fact there is no Sunday night football on DraftKings. Due to the limited games, I’ve eliminated the value section as there aren’t any values, except for Andy Dalton, who projects as a chalk option. Dalton, Kirk Cousins, and Carson Wentz all project as the highest-owned options for us. Given that quarterback scoring is usually pretty close together, there isn’t much risk in fading in any one of these options, but I would stick to this group of players when it comes to choosing your cash game quarterback. Although, there are a few quarterbacks in the stud and mid-range tiers I would deem cash viable.

Kirk Cousins ($7,800/$6,400) and Washington are 2-point underdogs, but they have the benefit of playing at home and they are implied for 24.25 points. Dating back to 2016, Cousins has averaged 22.95 fantasy points per game at home. Per the RotoViz Game Splits app, Cousins averages 301 passing yards, 1.64 touchdowns, and .91 interceptions, dating back to last year. He’s a good bet to hit the DraftKings 300-yard bonus against a Cowboys defense ranked 27th in quarterback aFPA. Cousins has the best projection among our chalk quarterbacks.
Carson Wentz ($7,900/$7,200) has been crushing this season—averaging 264 passing yards and 2.43 passing touchdowns per game with an 8.7 adjusted yards per attempt. He has thrown 3 or more touchdowns in each of his last three starts. The Eagles have a slate-high 30-point implied team total against a putrid 49ers secondary, allowing 258.6 passing yards per game. The 49ers rank 26th in quarterback aFPA. The 49ers are allowing .62 fantasy points per attempt to quarterbacks, the third-worst mark behind the Browns and the Patriots. The only concern with Wentz is the loss of starting LT Jason Peters.
After playing three road games in his last four starts, Andy Dalton ($7,600/$5,700) gets to come back home to face a Colts defense ranked 29th in quarterback aFPA. The matchup is solid as the Bengals are implied for 25 points and the Colts have been gashed through the air, allowing 310.86 passing yards, 8.96 yards per attempt, and .58 fantasy points per dropback—all bottom-four marks in the league. The Colts will also be without Malik Hooker (out for the season) and potentially Rashaan Melvin, who is in the concussion protocol.