DraftKings Championship Round Slate Breakdown

Jan 17, 2019

Conference Championship weekend comes down to the four best teams in the NFL this year, which doesn't happen often. Both games opened at 57.5 totals, but are down a point or two since. The major difference between these two games are the playing conditions. The Saints-Rams game will obviously be held in the climate-controlled Mercedes-Benz Superdome, so no issues there. However, the Patriots-Chiefs will be battling for the AFC crown in a bone-chilling eight degrees. And while there isn't much research to support the fact that temperature has much of an impact on fantasy production, the fact that the Saints-Rams game is on turf in perfect conditions may give it a slight edge. Let's take a look at how we can attack this slate by figuring out who we can target in accordance with how we predict the flow of each game to play out.

NFC Championship Game

Saints' Passing Game

With an implied total of 29 points, the Saints' have the highest total on the board, aided by perfect playing conditions. Michael Thomas ($8,200) was a man possessed against the Eagles. They couldn't contain him last week as he ripped them up for 12/171/1 on 16 targets. The Eagles' corners struggled mightily this year containing wide receivers and it showed against the Saints. It seemed like they tried to bracket Thomas by dropping linebackers underneath him, but he always found the opening in the soft zone they were playing most of the day. You have to think the Rams are going to sell out to prevent Thomas from doing that again. Whether they can actually slow Thomas down is to be seen and I'd think you'd be foolish to not roster him. It will allow Ted Ginn ($4,300) to once again be afforded the opportunity to have a big impact. He's been targeted 15 times in his last two games. The Saints basically forced the ball to him against the Eagles, even calling a playing action bomb to him on the first play of the game. Keith Kirkwood ($3,200) has surpassed TreQuan Smith as the third receiver in New Orleans, out-snapping him 53-23. He's worth a dart throw. Drew Brees ($5,900) is especially in play being at home where he averages nearly ten more fantasy points per game than on the road. The Rams rank 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to opposing quarterbacks. I'm not especially intrigued by any Saints tight end, though Josh Hill did ink an extension, then saw three targets against the Eagles. I'd only pull the trigger on him if you're playing a ton of lineups and rostering him won't take up a massive percentage of your tight end exposure.