NFL Week 8 Betting Preview & Picks

Oct 26, 2018

With the Giants and Falcons failing to score enough points to cash the over on Monday night, I suffered my first losing week for 4for4.com. It had to happen at some point and while it’s frustrating to take a loss, at least it didn’t come until Week 7. My season record still stands at 25-10-1 so hopefully Week 7 was merely a small bump in the road.

For those wondering, I did not have a pick on Thursday night. I didn’t trust Brock Osweiler despite Miami receiving seven points and I’ve seen Houston’s offensive line forcing Deshaun Watson to run for his life too many times to lay a full touchdown. If you had the Texans or the over, excellent work. I didn’t have a feel for the game and when that happens, it’s best to lay off.

I’m looking forward to jumping back in on Sunday, however. So let’s get to it…

251 Philadelphia Eagles vs. 252 Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Jaguars +3.5
O/U: 43
Time: 9:30 a.m. ET

Line Movement

The Jaguars opened as 3-point underdogs to beat the Eagles in London but the line is up to 3.5 at most sportsbooks. The total has also climbed, moving from 41 up to 43.

Public Betting

The Eagles are receiving 68% of the betting tickets and 73% of the money for this game. As for the total, 67% of the betting tickets and 67% of the money is on the over.

Key Injuries

Carson Wentz (back) was a full participant on Thursday and will play Sunday despite being limited to start the week. Darren Sproles (hamstring), however, is out for Week 8. Defensive end Derek Barnett will also miss the remainder of the season because he’ll underdog shoulder surgery.

The freefalling Jaguars will be without cornerback A.J. Bouye, who is out with a calf injury. Cornerback D.J. Hayden (toe) is also questionable while guard Andrew Norwell (foot) is probable.

Betting Trends

The Eagles are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games overall while the Jaguars failed to cover the number in four of their last five games overall.

Prediction

The Eagles blew a 17-point lead at home to the Panthers but I don’t get the sense that this is a team on tilt. The same cannot be said for the jaguars, who have been outscored 57-0 in the first half during their three-game skid. There was a report following Jacksonville’s ugly loss to Houston last week that tempers flared inside the locker room following the game. Players were reportedly yelling at each other and at least one member (Yannick Ngakoue) of the team had to be restrained.

People can make the Jaguars’ failures all about Blake Bortles but the problems run deeper than just one player. Yes, Bortles is an utter disaster. He can’t hang onto the football, he can’t move the offense, and even when this Jags’ offense does show some life, they can’t finish drives.

That said, the Jaguars defense was a problem in Kansas City, in Dallas, and at home versus Houston the last three weeks. They can’t get off the field and now injuries are starting to mount. This is not the same unit that led Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game last season and nearly to the Super Bowl.

The Jaguars have had some success in London but bet this team at your own risk. I’m rolling the dice on the Eagles with a short number.

Prediction: Eagles -3 (buy the hook from 3.5 down to 3)

271 Green Bay Packers at 272 Los Angeles Rams

Spread: Rams -9.5
O/U: 56.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET

Line Movement

The Rams opened as 8-point home favorites but the line climbed to -9.5, which is where it sits at most books. The total, meanwhile, hit the board at 57 but was bet down to 56.5.

Public Betting

The Packers are currently receiving 68% of the betting tickets and 92% of the money wagered in this matchup. Most of the betting tickets (73%) and money (83%) is also on the over.

Key Injuries

Randall Cobb (hamstring) was limited on practice on Thursday so his status for Sunday is still up in the air. The same goes for fellow receiver Geronimo Allison, who is also dealing with a hamstring injury. Mike McCarthy does expect cornerback Jaire Alexander (groin) to play.

For the Rams, they’re relatively healthy but will be without receiver Cooper Kupp (knee) again. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (knee) is expected to play according to coach Sean McVay.

Prediction

I’m not going to overthink this one: I’m nearly getting double-digit points with Aaron bleeping Rodgers. I know his receivers are banged-up. I know he’s banged up. I know Green Bay’s defense was shredded by C.J. Beathard and the 49ers two weeks ago at home.

I know. I also know I’m getting double-digit points with Aaron bleeping Rodgers.

The Rams are explosive, no doubt. They also don’t have much of a homefield advantage and the Packers are coming off a bye so travel isn’t that big of a concern.

While Rodgers is hobbled, he also has 12 touchdown passes to one interception so it’s not as if he’s playing poorly. As he proved against the Niners, he’s also always one play away from changing a game.

The Rams should win but did I mention I’m getting nearly double-digit points with Rodgers?

Prediction: Packers +9.5

269 San Francisco 49ers at 270 Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals +
O/U: 43.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET

Line Movement

This game opened as a pick’em at most books but the line moved in favor of the 49ers, who are now 1-point home favorites to beat the Cardinals. The total, meanwhile, dropped from 43.5 down to 42.5.

Public Betting

The 49ers are receiving 64% of the betting tickets and 79% of the money wagered on this game, while the under is attracting 65% of the betting tickets and 59% of the money.

Key Injuries

Richard Sherman is questionable to play for the 49ers due to a calf injury while center Weston Richburg is also questionable because of a knee injury. As for the Cardinals, Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring), Jamar Taylor (back) and Justin Pugh (hand) are all probable.

Betting Trends

The road team is 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams. The 49ers are also 9-3 against the number in their last 12 trips to Arizona.

Prediction

The Cardinals only have one win on the season and it came a few weeks ago in Santa Clara when they upset the 49ers. Arizona was one of my selections that Sunday and I wrote that I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cards pulled off an outright upset, which they did. That said, they also received a ton of help from a sloppy 49ers team that day. Despite out-gaining the Cardinals 447-220, the Niners lost by 10 points because they turned the ball over five times.

If San Francisco merely protects the football this one could be a runaway. Maybe I’m asking too much here because after all, C.J. Beathard does have seven interceptions and three lost fumbles in four starts this season. That said, rookie Josh Rosen is also coming off a five-turnover performance himself in that ugly loss to the Broncos. Rosen is super talented but Arizona’s offensive line can’t protect him and this coaching staff has no idea how to utilize David Johnson.

Speaking of the Cardinals’ coaching staff, the team fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and replaced him with former Jaguars first-round pick Byron Leftwich. Even if Leftwich does emulate Bruce Arian’s usage of Johnson, this is a bad situation for Rosen, who is already on coordinator No. 2 and he’s not even halfway through his rookie season.

In a coaching matchup between Kyle Shanahan and Steve Wilks, I love Shanahan and I also love the 49ers on Sunday.

Prediction: 49ers -1

261 Seattle Seahawks at 262 Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -3
O/U: 49
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Line Movement

The Lions opened as 2.5-point home favorites but the line has climbed to the current number of -3. As for the total, it hit the board at 49 and that’s where it currently sits.

Public Betting

The Seahawks are receiving 59% of the betting tickets and 68% of the money in this game. The over is also receiving 60% of the betting tickets and 65% of the money.

Trends

The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams.

Prediction

Both of these teams have won three of their past four games, which makes this matchup intriguing. I’ve been impressed by the Seahawks, who boast the league’s NO. 5 scoring defense while allowing just 19.5 points per game. They’ve also got their running game going of late, which has helped take pressure off Russell Wilson, who was running for his life early in the season. Speaking of Wilson, he’s 12-4 against the spread as an underdog coming off a win. Taking the points with Wilson has been profitable.

The Lions have also been impressive after their embarrassing Monday night opening versus the Jets. The talk that Matt Patricia had already lost the locker room has been non-existent of late but I also feel as though Detroit is due for a dud. They’re 1-4 in the last five meetings in this matchup and if they don’t run the ball well then Matthew Stafford tends to force things in the passing game. I’m siding with the ‘Hawks here.

Prediction: Seahawks +3

ATS Season Records