5 Defensive Linemen Going Way Too High in Drafts (Busts)

Aug 13, 2019

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It's about that time of year where drafts are in high gear. We've talked about the defensive linemen poised for a breakout and the rookies to target. Now, we're going to look at the DL position and where they are being drafted. I am here to stop you from taking these guys as they are being overdrafted. Now if you're playing in some crazy scoring where sacks are 20 pts, or you're getting points for QB hits, things will change. For these purposes, I'm looking at a balanced scoring system:

1.75pts solo tackle
0.5pts assisted tackle
4pts sack

In looking at MFL ADP Data, these defensive linemen are being overdrafted this season.

Chris Jones, Chiefs - DL11

Jones exploded onto the IDP scene last season. After recording 8.5 sacks in his first two seasons, he accumulated an astounding 15.5 in 2018. He's being drafted as a DL1, but I'm not so sure I'd be counting on a repeat.

If you picked Jones off the waiver wire, it's likely he paid huge dividends for your squad. What led to a 131% increase in sacks? His workload increased for starters.

Chris Jones Pass Rush Usage
Year	Pass Rushes	Sacks	Sack Rate	Pressure Rate
2016	320	2	0.6%	7.5%
2017	382	6.5	1.7%	8.9%
2018	458	15.5	3.4%	12.6%

If I'm in a DT-premium league, I'd consider him a DT1. If you're playing in general DL leagues, I'm not taking him above Demarcus Lawrence or Melvin Ingram. I'd let someone else bank on the repeat. In his third season, Jones received a 20% increase in his pass rushes and his sack rate doubled. Heading into 2019, I just don't see him sustaining that rate or receiving a repeat in usage. He was counted on to handle the bulk of the pass rush workload, but the Chiefs brought in Frank Clark, Emmanuel Ogbah and Alex Okafor as edge rushers, so they should see the majority of pass rushes.