NFL Week 10 Betting Picks & Preview

Nov 08, 2019

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Week 9 Recap: No rebound week. In fact, for a second straight Sunday, I posted a 1-3 ATS record to drop my season number to 15-16. Regular readers know I always preach the long game, but I also refuse to use that as a crutch when I’m losing. Through nine weeks of this NFL season, I’ve posted four winning weeks and five losing weeks. I hit 63% a year ago and while I was bound to regress this season, to be under .500 more than midway through 2019 is disappointing.

That said, I refuse to throw the baby out with the bathwater. My betting philosophy and approach produced great results last year and I’m confident things will turn around this season. If you continue to follow, here’s to a quick and dramatic turnaround, starting this weekend.

253 Buffalo Bills at 254 Cleveland Browns

Spread: Browns -2.5
O/U: 42.5
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday

I faded the Browns a week ago in Denver but I’m reversing course this Sunday. They haven’t won a game since upsetting the Ravens on the final weekend in September, but the key to beating the Bills lies in the key factor in beating Baltimore that weekend: Run the ball.

Nick Chubb rushed 20 times for 165 yards and three touchdowns in that victory over the Ravens. With Chubb and the running game the focal point of the offense, Baker Mayfield wasn’t constantly under siege. Sure, the Browns added Odell Beckham Jr. to a passing game that already featured Mayfield and Jarvis Landry. That said, what good are those weapons if Mayfield has zero time to throw behind one of the worst offensive lines in football? If the Browns find their running game, and I believe they will, then they’ll beat the Bills on Sunday.

Only the Panthers and Dolphins rank lower than the Bills in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA metric. The Eagles ran all over Buffalo in Week 8 and Chubb averages 97.7 rushing yards per game at 4.83 yards per carry in home games this season. Despite the Browns appearing on the verge of self-destructing, I see them circling the wagons this weekend and reminding everyone that there is talent on this roster.

NFL Week 10 Selection: Cleveland Browns -2.5

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261 Baltimore Ravens at 262 Cincinnati Bengals

Spread: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 44.5
Time: 1:00 p..m. ET

I’ll keep this one short and sweet: After beating the Patriots last Sunday night, this is a pure letdown spot for a Baltimore team I expect to largely sleepwalk through this weekend’s matchup with winless Cincinnati. That said, you can’t give me enough points to back the Bengals right now, so I’m staying away from the side.

The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL and should have zero issues moving the ball at will versus a Bengals defense that employs some of the worst linebackers in the league. There’s no reason for Baltimore to throw the ball all over Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday and thus, I expect the Ravens to keep it on the ground, chew clock and get out of Cincinnati without taking many risks.

Meanwhile, the Bengals will start fourth-round rookie Ryan Finley after benching Andy Dalton during their bye week. It is the year of the backup quarterback in the NFL, so perhaps Finley will have his Gardner Minshew/Kyle Allen/Matt Moore/Ryan Tannehill/Brandon Allen/Daniel Jones/Teddy Bridgewater moment and play well. The better bet, however, is that Finley struggles to make an impact and the Cincinnati running game continues to struggle.

NFL Week 10 Selection: Ravens/Bengals UNDER 44.5

263 Carolina Panthers at 264 Green Bay Packers

Spread: Panthers +5.5
O/U: 47
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday

Both of these teams run the ball well and neither defends the run with much success. It should be the Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones show, until the Packers want to put the game in Aaron Rodgers’ hands. And hey, who could blame them if they eventually unleash Rodgers?

The problem is that the Panthers’ strength defensively is defending the pass. They rank third in pass defense DVOA thanks in large part to emerging fourth-year cornerback James Bradberry, who should draw plenty of Davante Adams in coverage on Sunday. So yeah, the Packers have Rodgers. But moving away from Jones isn’t necessarily the best plan of attack versus the Panthers.

If the Panthers lean on McCaffrey and the Packers mostly use Jones and Jamaal Williams to move the ball, possessions should be limited and scoring should be relatively minimal. I’m also not going to casually lay 5.5 points assuming that Rodgers and Co. are a guarantee to rebound from their ugly performance last week against the Chargers. They looked like they took the week off and now face a Panthers team that has only lost once since Kyle Allen took over for the injured Cam Newton.

NFL Week 10 Selection: Carolina Panthers +5.5

269 Los Angeles Rams at 270 Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: Steelers +3.5
O/U: 44
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday

Before their bye, the Rams waxed the Falcons 37-10 and soundly defeated the Bengals 24-10 in London. All is right in Sean McVay Land, right? Well, did I mention that those two teams have a combined one win on the season? This Rams offense isn’t that far removed from posting 7 points and 78 passing yards in a home loss to the 49ers back on October 13.

The biggest issue with the Rams is their offensive line. That unit was excellent the past two seasons but injuries, age and overall ineffectiveness have plagued the group, and Jared Goff has paid the price. In fact, the Rams have allowed the second-most pressures and hurries in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Goff hasn’t shown the same accuracy he did a year ago and, to make matters worse, he’ll be without Brandin Cooks (concussion) this weekend.

I bring up the Rams’ struggles along the offensive line because they’ll face one of the better defensive fronts in football this Sunday in Pittsburgh. The Steelers own a 10.0% Adjusted Sack Rate, which ranks second to only the 49ers, according to Football Outsiders. That’s the same Niners team that made Goff’s day miserable back in Week 6. The Steelers have also been a different defense on the back end after trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick, who had another pick last week in the team’s win over the Colts.

Bet against Mike Tomlin at your own risk. His Steelers are 8-2-4 against the spread as a home dog.

NFL Week 10 Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5