The Rundown: Week 16

Dec 20, 2019

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As the fantasy championships approach, it's important to focus on the matchups and health, largely ignoring who got your team to that point. It could mean benching a key contributor from your semi-final game or someone you drafted in Round 2. It's a tough decision and could end up backfiring, but good process shouldn't be discarded at this pivotal moment in the fantasy season.

This will also be my last iteration of The Rundown for the 2019 season. I appreciate everyone who has followed the series throughout the year. While this is over, for now, I will still continue with plenty of offseason content along with the rest of the 4for4 team.

As always, the early game preview along with stats to know is already available and this will focus on the rest of the slate including start/sit recommendations.

Fantasy Rating Key

(5) - Elite option. Must start.
(4) - Strong option. Likely start.
(3) - Good option. Low-end starter to high-end backup.
(2) - Weak option. Possible flex or desperation play.
(1) - Bad option. Bench in nearly all cases.
(0) - Not an option. Injured, bench, or waivers.

Steelers @ Jets

Spread: Jets +3 | Total: 38.5

Nothing gets fantasy players more excited than a pair of top 10 defenses facing off against bottom five offenses. The Steelers have the playoffs in view but it seems hard to imagine them finding much success if their quarterback situation continues to flounder. The Jets have no playoff aspirations but have an offense they need to figure out for 2020.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The best bet against the Jets defense is through the air but that’s not a great option for a team that threw four interceptions last week. James Conner has a chance to get significant volume while a big play or two is possible through the air for the receivers when Devlin Hodges avoids throwing to the defense.

Team Trends That Matter

The slowest offensive pace (32.86 seconds) when leading by seven or more points.
Their 35.1% red zone touchdown rate is last in the league on offense.
Just three quarterbacks have thrown for 17 or more fantasy points against the Steelers in 2019.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

QB Devlin Hodges (0) - Season-high 38 pass attempts in Week 15
RB James Conner (4) - Week 15 was his first full game under 10 rushing attempts this year
RB Jaylen Samuels (1) - Had just one target in Week 15, his lowest in nine games
WR Diontae Johnson (2) - 15 targets in the last two weeks, his largest two-game total
WR James Washington (3) - 80 or more receiving yards in three of the past four games
TE Nick Vannett (1) - Week 15 was his first game over two-pass targets (six) this year

New York Jets

The Steelers defense is equally difficult against the run and pass with a penchant for forcing turnovers. That makes Sam Darnold an easy avoid but there will be some chances in the red zone and to gain yardage, giving some other options a little upside.

Team Trends That Matter

Ninth slowest pace (26.79 seconds) on offense when trailing by seven or more points.
Have only allowed one running back to reach 100 rushing yards this season.
Converting just 30.6% of third downs on offense in 2019, the second-lowest rate in the NFL.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

QB Sam Darnold (0) - Just one game below 15 fantasy points in his last six contests
RB LeVeon Bell (4) - Just two games under 15 total touches in 2019
WR Robby Anderson (3) - The WR11 over the past four games
WR Jamison Crowder (2) - At least seven targets in four of the last five games