DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 6

Oct 10, 2019

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Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation of how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Gardner Minshew ($6,900 FD/$5,000 DK) vs. Saints

One of the biggest indicators of fantasy upside is efficiency and Gardner Minshew has been among the best this season, ranking seventh in fantasy points per attempt among quarterbacks on the main slate. New Orleans has filtered points towards the passing game, ranking 10th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs but 22nd against quarterbacks. One big area the Saints defense has struggled in is defending the long ball—only two teams have allowed more completions on passes 15-plus yards downfield. A low projected score and ownership quarterback ownership concentrated at the top should mean Minshew will be owned in less than 5% of large-field GPP lineups. If you are someone who typically only uses four or five quarterback stacks in your portfolio, using Minshew in 10-15% of your portfolio is viable.