Week 15 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
We’re close to the end of the regular season, and you should have a relatively good idea of where you stand in your various pools and contests. Our friends at TeamRankings have a beneficial article on endgame strategy in those NFL season-long pick’em contests, highlighting the best way to adjust your approach as we head down the stretch.
Week 14 Recap
All of my picks came through for me last week as I went 4-0 in this column.
The Packers, Chiefs, Cowboys and Bills all pulled out victories, bringing my season-long record to 44-14 through 14 weeks. (The high volume of fours as an employee of 4for4 is not lost on me.)
Pick’em Pool Breakdown
As usual, these picks are sorted according to where they sit on the risk/reward spectrum. I try to provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 15 picks from your pool opponents, by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.
Favorite Favorite
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a mess, from questionable coaching decisions and a mediocre quarterback to the fumbling issues in recent weeks. Pittsburgh certainly has had their own share of issues as of late, but I think this will be a get-right situation for Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers.
The Steelers are 13-point favorites in this contest, with win odds of 86% via Vegas and TeamRankings. Public bettors are on Pittsburgh 97% of the time this week, so you will win or lose this pick with most of your pool.
Sensibly Priced Favorites
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team
Yes, Washington does have a stout defensive line, but they have struggled this season when facing mobile quarterbacks. In losses to Arizona and Baltimore, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray combined for three rushing touchdowns and ran for a joint 120 yards.
Seattle’s odds of winning this contest are a nice 69% with the public on board 84% of the time. This pick provides some value this week. As 5.5-point favorites, the Seahawks are being selected by bettors less frequently than teams with similar point spreads. For instance, the Colts and Bills are favored similarly to Seattle but boast higher average pick popularity (95%).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
This pick is similar to Seattle above, in that there is value in going with the favorite here. Tampa Bay is projected to win by six points, with 73% win odds via TeamRankings. Public bettors are backing the Bucs 92% of the time, but that number is still smaller than similar matchups such as Indy or Buffalo.
Tampa Bay seemed to get back on track last week, while the Falcons looked not so great against the Chargers. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense are driving that struggle bus—the Bucs should have their way in this one.
Value Favorite
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
This one makes me a bit queasy, but I’m going to include it anyway because there’s value here. The 49ers are 3-point road favorites in this matchup, with 60% Vegas win odds. With the Cowboys coming off a win, recency bias has the public taking the 49ers 54% of the time, with 46% of folks backing the upset in Dallas.
There’s an opportunity to get a slight favorite in San Francisco, at a value price, with nearly half of the public picking Dallas in Week 15.
Survivor Picks for Week 15
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 15 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Jets (93%, 17-point favorites)
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Jaguars (88%, 14-point favorites)
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Bengals (86%, 13-point favorites)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Lions (84%, 10-point favorites)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Panthers (79%, 10-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 15 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Jets (24%)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Lions (21%)
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Jaguars (17%)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Eagles (10%)
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Bengals (7%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 15, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Kansas City Chiefs (2.7)
- Baltimore Ravens (2.4)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.7)
- New Orleans Saints (1.4)
- Cleveland Browns (1.2)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
