Week 9 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
We are blessed with a handful of big spreads this week, along with some interesting matchups that could separate some from the pack in Week 9 if picked correctly.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 9, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make smart decisions in order to get back on track or keep you going if you’ve had a strong start to the season thus far.
Editor’s Note: Try TeamRankings with a Week 9 free trial.
Week 8 Recap
Last week my picks went 3-1, with Tampa Bay, Philly and the Saints all getting a win. My lone loss was my gamble pick, as the Patriots were unable to edge out the Bills.
Through eight weeks, my picks in this column are 25-9 overall—with three of those losses coming the first week.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 9 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and number of weeks remaining.
As usual, these picks are sorted according to where they sit on the risk/reward spectrum. I try to provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 9 picks from your pool opponents, by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.
Sensibly Priced Favorites
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
This contest has just over a touchdown line in favor of the Texans (7.5 points), with Houston getting 74% odds of victory from Vegas and 73% via TeamRankings.
With former head coach Bill O’Brien out of the picture, this Houston team has been playing well, and get a struggling Jaguars unit with rookie quarterback Jake Luton at the helm this week. Despite being over a touchdown favorite, the public is only taking the Texans 80% of the time, while the contest with a similar spread (NE/NYJ) has the public on the Patriots at 92%.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
This NFC West title game rematch from 2019 doesn’t even resemble what we saw last season due to injuries and of course, COVID-related issues. San Francisco barely has enough guys to field a team and will have Nick Mullens under center. The Packers have their own set of issues, particularly in the backfield, but Aaron Rodgers should have them moving the chains against this decimated 49ers squad.
TeamRankings has Green Bay at 70% odds to win this tilt, with the public on board at an 83% rate. The Packers are favored by six points, and with those odds numbers, it makes sense to ride with the favorite here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
This is another game where picking the favorite makes sense. The Bucs are projected to win by 5.5 points at home, against a Saints team that has had to travel two straight contests.
Tampa Bay’s defense is playing very well, especially when it comes to getting to the quarterback, as they boast the second-highest sacks in the league with 28. Tom Brady and his weapons are in gel mode and we can’t forget about the debut of Antonio Brown, which went well for the duo last year in New England (at least for that one game).
The Bucs feature 67% win odds by both Vegas and TeamRankings, while the public is on them at just 75%.
Value Pick
Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills
The Seahawks are the favorite here (by only 2.5 points), with just 58% win odds. As much as I want to pick the Bills here for the upset, I just don’t think their defense can contain Russell Wilson and his arsenal of playmakers. This may turn into a shootout since Seattle can’t really stop anyone either, but Wilson should get it done in the end for the Seahawks.
The public betting is coming in at 75% for Seattle, so you won’t necessarily differentiate yourselves with this pick, but I also see a push for the Bills possibly coming as the week goes on.
Survivor Picks for Week 9
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 9 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cowboys (87%, 13.5-point favorites)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Panthers (82%, 10.5-point favorites)
- New England Patriots @ Jets (75%, 7.5-point favorites)
- Houston Texans @ Jaguars (74%, 7.5-point favorites)
- Green Bay Packers @ 49ers (70%, 6-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 9 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cowboys (40%)
- New England Patriots @ Jets (20%)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Panthers (11%)
- Houston Texans @ Jaguars (10%)
- Green Bay Packers @ 49ers (4%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 9, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Baltimore Ravens (5.8)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (3.9)
- Kansas City Chiefs (3.8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.7)
- Green Bay Packers (3.5)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
