How to Bet the 2021 Kentucky Derby
Once thought of as sport’s version of roulette, the Kentucky Derby has been more formful in recent years with the likes of California Chrome, American Pharoah and Justify having been well found out prior to the first Saturday in May. This year has a different feel, however, as the three-year-old crop of horses, on the whole, has been underwhelming and this race has lacked a true standout candidate.
This year’s Kentucky Derby will be held on Saturday, May 1st at its traditional home of Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The post time is 6:57 pm ET/3:57 pm PT and it is carded as race 12 of 14 on the day at Churchill Downs.
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2021 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Morning Line Odds
- Known Agenda (6-1)
- Like the King (50-1)
- Brooklyn Strong (50-1)
- Keepmeinmind (50-1)
- Sainthood (50-1)
- O Besos (20-1)
- Mandaloun (15-1)
- Medina Spirit (15-1)
- Hot Rod Charlie (8-1)
- Midnight Bourbon (20-1)
- Dynamic One (20-1)
- Helium (50-1)
- Hidden Stash (50-1)
- Essential Quality (2-1) *morning line favorite
- Rock Your World (5-1)
King Fury (20-1)*scratched- Highly Motivated (10-1)
- Super Stock (30-1)
- Soup and Sandwich (30-1)
- Bourbonic (30-1)
Best Bet
#1 Known Agenda (6-1)
Your post-time favorite for the race will likely be Essential Quality, who, while undefeated, has never been considered a standout by the public. His recent win in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) was good without being great and his odds will likely be too short to entertain in a field of this size. Instead, I’ve pivoted to a fellow winner of one of the final prep races in the Todd Pletcher-trained Known Agenda. He drew the dreaded inside post, which will likely inflate his odds; but, he typically drops out to a midpack or worse settling position anyway, so I don’t foresee it being too troublesome for him. He differs from the typical Pletcher horse in a Derby in that he’s taken several races to learn, develop and begin to show his best self on race day. His past two races were undoubtedly the best of his career, however. Even better is his pedigree, as he’s by Curlin out of Byrama who won the Vanity Handicap (G1) over a mile and an eighth back in 2013. While others appear to have stamina doubts, in what projects to be a quick race early, his running style and stamina-laden breeding are big positives.
Value Bet
#13 Hidden Stash (50-1)
I’ve followed this son of Constitution for a while now and have long been intrigued from a Derby perspective. That intrigue has only risen with the projection of a fast race early, given it would flatter his late-closing style. While Hidden Stash has not won this year, he also hasn’t run a poor race either. After narrow defeats in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs and Tampa Bay Derby (G2), his fourth-place finish in the Blue Grass (G2) wasn’t a bad effort at all. His rider, Rafael Bejarano, settled him in towards the back of the field, along the rail so he could save ground. When asked to go, Hidden Stash made a quick eye-catching move before grinding out the finish. The top two were long gone by that point, but this horse fought to the finish and that’s a nice quality to have going into a 20-horse scrum of a race, unlike anything he’s ever seen before. He’s not the most likely winner, but he’s worth using in vertical wagers. His trainer, Victoria Oliver, may not be widely known outside of horse racing circles, but she’s been known to have a few horses over the years out-run their odds at a big number.
Longshot Bet
#5 Sainthood (50-1)
Since we already had a 50-1 shot on the morning line as our value play, we’ll say this is an additional longshot to follow. Sainthood—like our best bet, Known Agenda—is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has had a strong group of three-year-olds in his barn, overall. Sainthood has only raced three times and is giving up an experience edge to many of his competitors here, but with lack of experience comes a larger potential for improvement. His runner-up performance in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) last out was better than it looks given the trouble he encountered throughout the race, so I wouldn’t be overly concerned about him finishing behind fellow Derby longshot Like the King there. Overall, he’s more open to improvement than almost anyone in the field and his pedigree indicates he should stay the mile-and-a-quarter journey.
Suggested Play
This is a race I try to target in verticals given the large size of the field. Doing so allows for us to take advantage of longer shots who may come in second or third, even if the winner winds up being decently logical. I’m going to look to play a trifecta in this spot keying our best bet #1 Known Agenda on top. From there, we’ll try to sprinkle in some longshots who will likely race off the speed early—and could plausibly take advantage of a projected quick early pace—underneath. Essential Quality is formidable and tough to exclude completely out of the top three given his undefeated record, but I won’t use him in this play knowing that if both he and Known Agenda fill out two of the three legs of the trifecta, the likely payout won’t be enough to justify the cost of including him. This is a small risk, potentially high reward play.
Trifecta Bet
$0.50 Trifecta
Win Line: 1
Place Line: 4,5,8,11,13,18
Show Line: 4,5,8,11,13,18
$15 Total Play
Wagering Explanation
Vertical wagers are exotics that depend on the result of a single race. Examples of vertical wagers are:
- Exacta: Correctly select the top two finishers.
- Trifecta: Correctly select the top three finishers.
- Superfecta: Correctly select the top four finishers.
You can use multiple horses on the win, place, show or fourth-place finishing line in any of those wagers, but the cost of your wager will increase accordingly.
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