NBA Player Prop Bets: Ayton Rolling to the Finals

Tonight is the first possible closeout game of the conference finals, as the Western Conference Finals shifts back to Phoenix with the Suns as 5.5-point favorites in a game with a total of 214. This series has progressively turned into more of a rock fight with a few stat categories getting funneled to fewer players. Following volume and hitting a baseline efficiency on that volume is where you can still find some value later in these series. Another way to find value is to utilize 4for4’s NBA Player Prop Tool. Let’s mine for some value and make it a profitable start to the week!

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (June 28, 2021)

Deandre Ayton Over 16.5 Points (-116)

So far in this series, Deandre Ayton’s points over has been a cash cow and there are no signs of that slowing down tonight. Ayton is averaging 20.3 points per game in the series on 14 field goal attempts per game. What makes this over more improbable than they look initially is that Ayton does not get to the foul line as much as most big men. He is only averaging 1.25 free three attempts per game in the series but he has found another way to make his game more efficient and this over an easier hit.

As the playoffs have progressed, Ayton has eliminated most of his post-ups from his offensive game. In the regular season, Ayton averaged 4.7 post-ups per game on 33.8 touches. In the first two rounds of the playoffs, the touches increased to 46.2 per game but the post-ups were cut significantly to 2.7 per game. Now against the Clippers, Ayton has dropped the post-ups to 2.5 per game, while getting 53.0 touches. This is so important because Ayton's post-up possessions in the playoffs have averaged a dismal 0.47 points per possession.

Ayton has focused his offensive game on rim running off pick and rolls, which average 1.56 points per possession in the playoffs and putbacks from his booming offensive rebounding numbers. Ayton’s offensive rebounds have jumped from 2.7 in the first two rounds to 4.8 against the Clippers. On those putback possessions, the Suns are averaging 1.17 points per possession.

The increased efficiency of Ayton should continue to make this a value prop.

Risk: 1.16 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

Ivica Zubac Over 10.5 Rebounds (+100)

Ivica Zubac is the perfect example of why matchups matter so much in the playoffs. Against the Jazz, Zubac was essentially unplayable for long stretches. By the end of that series, he was playing less than 10 minutes but Zubac has been essential to the Clippers against Phoenix.

With Ayton running wild to the rim, Zubac has provided at least a big body that can slow Ayton down some. Zubac has given the Clippers a viable roll option, too, to keep defenders honest when they stay too close to shooters. In the three games where Zubac has played significant minutes, he has averaged 13.7 rebounds on 25.0 rebounding chances. He has been able to do that even with Ayton pulling down more than 13 boards a game.

The Clippers do not have a lot of viable rebounding options, so there is a lot of work on Zubac’s plate and that makes for a high rebounding floor. This number is closer to the floor in this series and that provides value.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

Reggie Jackson Under 3.5 Assists (+128)

In these playoffs, playing an under on Reggie Jackson almost feels blasphemous and the books agree if you look where the juice lies. With all his scoring in the playoffs, Jackson has gone under this prop 13 times out of 17 games, as well as in three of the four games versus the Suns.

Since he started getting consistent minutes in Game 2 of the Jazz series, Jackson is averaging 3.6 assists on 6.0 potential assists. Jackson only went over this prop twice in that time and the average is boosted by an outlier close-out game against Utah where Jackson had 10 assists on 12 potential assists. How much of an outlier was it? In the rest of the playoffs, the highest assist total Jackson has had is four!

Against the Suns, his assist average has fallen to 2.8, even with a higher potential assist average at 6.5. Some would point to that as a prime spot for some positive regression and while that is on the table, there are a couple of big reasons to still be willing to go under on this prop. After an offensive-minded Game 1, the Clippers clearly made the decision to try and win by playing better defense and grinding games out. That meant more minutes for players like Patrick Beverley and Terance Mann, who no one would ever regard as snipers from distance. More minutes for them means more minutes with inconsistent shooters in the corners and that lowers the value of every Reggie Jackson potential assist.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.28 units.

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.