NBA Player Prop Bets: Booker on the Boards

The second round of the NBA playoffs is underway and it is really a battle of small sample sizes to try and determine value. In the case of the Bucks and Nets, how much do you value what happened in game one versus what was seen in the first round versus underlying trends from the regular season? With the Nuggets and Suns, it is all projection on the matchup since these teams have not matched up since January 23rd—clearly, a lot has changed with both teams since then. Another way to help navigate our trip to the small sample size theater is to utilize 4for4’s NBA Player Prop Tool. Enjoy the high-level basketball today and let's make it a profitable start to the week.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

PointsBet Player Prop Bets (June 7, 2021)

Devin Booker Over 5.5 Rebounds (+110)

In the Suns' impressive defeat of the Lakers in round one, it was a tale of two series on the boards for Devin Booker. That dichotomy looks as if it is leading to some value for the beginning of the Nuggets series.

If you look at regular-season numbers, this prop doesn't make a ton of sense. Booker averaged 4.3 rebounds on 7.3 rebounding chances, not leaving a lot of ceiling to get above this number. This continued in the first half of the Lakers series with averages of 4.0 rebounds on 7.3 rebounding chances.

In the latter half of the series, Marc Gasol began to get more minutes with the Lakers starters, so Deandre Ayton’s defensive assignment pulled him away from the basket and Booker was the beneficiary of Ayton’s relocation. In games 1-3, Ayton averaged 20.7 rebounding chances but in games 4-6, those dropped to 15.7.

For Booker, games 1-3 looked like his regular-season numbers but in games 4-6 those numbers jumped to 8.3 rebounds on 14.3 rebounding chances. While it doesn’t show up much in the numbers, Booker taking more of the guard rebounding responsibilities has to be on the mind of the Suns so they can keep Chris Paul and his shoulder away from situations like the one where he initially hurt it.

The Denver Nuggets are very under-manned in the backcourt with Jamal Murray, Will Barton and PJ Dozier out. So in a matchup, Facundo Campazzo, Austin Rivers nor Monte Morris should be able to physically handle Booker in many rebounding opportunities.

Risk: 1 unit on PointsBet to win 1.1 units.

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (June 7, 2021)

Monte Morris Over 12.5 Points (-113)

Speaking of Monte Morris, he took on a bigger role later in the Nuggets’ first-round series. Morris came into the playoffs on a minutes limit, after returning from a right hamstring strain. While Campazzo continued to get the starts, Morris gradually took the majority of the minutes and his production spiked in games five and six.

In the first four games of the series, in 25.6 minutes per game, Morris averaged 10.5 points per game on 9.5 field goal attempts, while shooting 44.7% from the field, 33.3% from deep and 71.4% from the free throw line on 1.8 attempts. After those first four games, Campazzo’s role was reduced in favor of Morris to add some dynamism. As an example, in the playoffs when the Nuggets run pick and roll with Campazzo as the ball handler, they average 0.63 Points per possession. With Morris running pick and roll, Denver averages 1.31 points per possession. It’s not their primary action but one where the point guard has the most control.

In the two games since Morris took the lead at point guard, and taking out the overtime periods from game five, Morris averaged 20.5 points on 15 field goal attempts, and his shooting splits were 44.1%/46.7%/81.3%. With more opportunity, Morris is looking for his shot and converting at decent efficiency. Phoenix is a much better defense than Portland at the point of attack and at the rim but with the extra volume, Morris should have every chance to hit this prop.

Risk: 1.13 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (June 7, 2021)

Jrue Holiday Over 7.5 Assists (+118)

There is something odd going on between the total and Holiday’s prop and it looks like there is value to be had as a result. The total for Bucks-Nets game two sits between 235.5 and 236.5, depending on where you look—and it seems to be continuing to climb. With as much of a playmaker as Jrue Holiday is for the Bucks, logic would dictate the line on this prop would be more than 7.5.

In the playoffs overall, Holiday is averaging 9.0 assists on 16.0 potential assists. The series against the Heat was slower than this series against the Nets will likely be. Holiday came up short on this prop in game one with only six assists but the Bucks had a horrific night shooting the ball. Milwaukee was 6-30 from deep and shot 44% overall from the field.

Another reason it seems likely Holiday’s lack of assist production was tied to the woeful Bucks shooting, as opposed to a sea change in role, was Holiday still had 15 potential assists in the game. He took his most shots of the playoffs with 19 but was still looking for others and in positions to get more assists.

It is fair to think even if the Bucks do not come back to their season averages shooting, there can be enough positive regression for Holiday to this prop. On top of that, the pace in game one was 104.5, it never got over 100 in any game against the Heat. This prop goes over if it hits the average of the Heat series but will have more possessions than any game of that Heat series, giving Holiday even more opportunities.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.18 units.

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