Undervalued Dynasty Players: Post-Draft 2021

Jun 23, 2021

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For the last several years, I've been using 4for4's early rankings to identify dynasty trade targets in the offseason. I first described the process in 2019, when it identified players like Lamar Jackson, Aaron Jones and Curtis Samuel. It is now time to revisit the topic for 2021.

Methodology

Starting with our projections for next season, I project each player further forward, beyond next season, using typical age curves for their position in order to estimate the points scored in all future seasons. Then, I combine all those points into a lifetime value for the player, in a similar manner to how you would value a stock.

Estimated lifetime values should correlate very strongly with ADP. Where the two disagree, we have a player that is potentially under- or over-valued. Below, I will go through the players who stand out as undervalued after applying this process with 4for4 rankings and current dynasty startup ADP.

Dynasty Values

Quarterback

With Carson Wentz now in Indianapolis, Jalen Hurts will be the signal caller for the Eagles for 2021. Hurts is currently going as the 11th QB in dynasty startups, which is later than where we would take him in redraft at QB9. That discrepancy would make sense if Hurts was 40 years old, but he has yet to turn 23! Obviously, dynasty drafters are skeptical that Hurts is going to be a long-term starter. We think the addition of DeVonta Smith alongside a (hopefully healthy) Jalen Reagor, plus his rushing ability, should see Hurts to a top 12 season this year. If that happens he should secure his role as the starter, and his price in dynasty should rise significantly.

At the other end of the age spectrum, Ryan Fitzpatrick is currently being drafted outside of the top 200 in dynasty startups. That makes some sense given his advancing age (he's almost 39). However, given the weapons available to him this year, including Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, we expect a top-15 season from Fitzpatrick this year. If he plays well, the Football Team also won't be in a position to easily draft a replacement for him next season, so he could have more than one usable season left. That seems worthy of his price tag, which is roughly a fourth-round rookie pick at present.